424
FXUS61 KBTV 051126
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
626 AM EST FRI DEC 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
FRIGID TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL MODERATE TO AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WEAK
CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS A RENEWED CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1259 AM EST FRIDAY...QUIET BUT UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND VERMONT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FRIGID TEMPERATURES
FROM 5 ABOVE TO ALMOST 20 BELOW AT SUNRISE WILL REBOUND TO AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND
THE EXITING HIGH. SOME WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WIDER VALLEYS SUCH AS CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO TO TEENS ABOVE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1259 AM EST FRIDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS POISED TO
TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH
IT'S ATTENDING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL AID IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS REACHING AS FAR AS THE
NORTHERN GREENS. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION, AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR
FREEZING, SO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY NON-
IMPACTFUL (<2"). QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY UNDER ANOTHER AREA OF BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE, AND SUNDAY HIGHS COOL AGAIN IN THE
TEENS NORTH TO UPPER 20S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1259 AM EST FRIDAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY SKIRTS BY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF BITTER COLD, WITH HIGHS
10F TO 20F AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN DIPPING DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON
TUESDAY, AND THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THEREAFTER. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT
THERE'S UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AS INDICATED BY THE GFS
AND CMC, OR IF IT MOVES BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF.
THE NORTHERN SOLUTION WOULD MEAN PRECIPITATION GOING FROM SNOW TO
RAIN, WITH A WINTRY MIX LIKELY DURING THE TRANSITION GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
WOULD MEAN JUST PLAIN SNOW. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, STUCK CLOSE TO
THE NBM FOR MID WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. ONLY FEW-SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED,
THOUGH COULD SEE LOW CLOUDS START TO LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD KRUT
AFTER 06Z SAT. HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY, BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
S/SE 5-10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT
KBTV/KPBG DUE TO CHANNELING UP THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WINDS
RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 00Z SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL
STATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. TECHNICIANS DO
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THIS
STATION. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ029-
030.
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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