592
FXUS61 KBTV 060555
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1255 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A RENEWED CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY, WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1254 AM EST SATURDAY...A WIDE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING, RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S IN THE LARGER
VALLEYS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0F IN THE ADIRONDACKS
AND EASTERN VT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK, SO
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO HOLD STEADY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
ADIRONDACKS, THOUGH EASTERN VT COULD SEE A LITTLE ADDITIONAL
COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN EARNEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS FLOW
TURNS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 30S
IN MOST AREAS, THOUGH A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS IN
EASTERN VT MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S. STILL, IT WILL BE QUITE A
BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL BE A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS DUE TO
CHANNELING.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO AS THE COOL AIR MOVES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.
THE BAND WILL WAVER FROM THE SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TOWARD THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS WINDS TURN SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY
WEST/SOUTHWEST. THE AIR/WATER TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL ISN'T ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE, SO SHOWERS WILL BE SOMEWHAT UNORGANIZED AND
SHOULDN'T MAKE IT TOO FAR FROM THE LAKE. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
INCH OR LESS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LACKING, BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREENS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LOW TEENS BY DAYBREAK, WHILE SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL
MAINLY STAY IN THE TEENS. SNOW WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS, PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF INCHES OVER THE HIGHER NORTHERN SUMMITS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1254 AM EST SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK CLIPPER LOW TREKS ACROSS THE REGION.
SUNDAY STARTS OUT DRY WITH CLOUDS QUICKLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW WILL
LIKEWISE GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD, HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, AND THEN MOVING
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS A FAIRLY
FAST MOVER, SO SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED BY DAYBREAK MONDAY FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR NORTHEAST KINGDOM. SNOWFALL WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM GIVEN
LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES, JUST ENOUGH TO FRESHEN THE
SNOWPACK AND PERHAPS MAKE FOR SOME SLICK TRAVEL. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO
THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 IN SOUTH- CENTRAL VT. JUST ABOUT EVERYONE WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH SOME BELOW ZERO
READINGS LIKELY IN THE ADIRONDACKS. MONDAY WILL BE COLD WITH BRISK
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS WITH A FEW SPOTS IN
FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOW 20S. GIVEN THE
BREEZY WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL STAY IN THE -5F TO +5F RANGE IN MOST
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER SUMMITS WILL BE EVEN COLDER,
AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO 25+ MPH WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS
-25F.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1257 PM EST FRIDAY...THE WEAK TROUGH OR BARELY 1010MB LOW WILL
SLIDE OUT BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SOME SPEED DISCREPANCIES, BUT
GIVEN THAT A MODEST COUNT OF ENSEMBLES INDICATE LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS, BOOSTED POPS ABOVE NBM, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
WE'LL SOON BE IN THE RANGE OF HIGH RES, AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED SOME
GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO SNOW AS LATE AS 00Z TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM, AND SO MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 10S, WITH PERHAPS A FEW 20 READINGS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AWAITS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLIDE IN
FROM THE WEST. SO FOR NOW, THE FORECAST REPRESENTS THE NBM FORECAST,
WHICH IS STILL PLENTY COLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO. AS WE GET CLOSER, WE'LL MONITOR HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE
WILL BE AND WHETHER WE CAN AGAIN EXPERIENCE CHILLIER CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE.
CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE QUICKLY AS THE AMPLITUDE OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
INCREASES SOME. IN THE 500MB HEIGHTS, THERE'S A TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW, AND THEN A
LARGER SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND YET ANOTHER ON LATE
FRIDAY. AS THE WEEK WEARS ON, TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK. SO ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE RAIN MIXES IN
DEPENDING ON LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR CURRENTLY AT ALL STATIONS EXCEPT KRUT
WHICH IS SEEING SOME MVFR CEILINGS DUE TO A PUSH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT WITH DEVELOPING SOUTH WINDS AT 4
TO 8 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS 15 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY MSS/PBG AND SLK.
GIVEN THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTIES REACHING THE GROUND THRU 18Z SATURDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES. EVENTUALLY A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT SLK/MSS AFTER 21Z WITH SOME LOWERING CIGS
TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KMSS/KSLK/KPBG/KBTV BETWEEN
22Z - 02Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIKELY SN, LIKELY RA.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL
STATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. TECHNICIANS DO
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THIS
STATION. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...TABER/VERASAMY
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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