049
FXUS61 KBTV 061755
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1255 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT, WHILE A DISORGANIZED FRONT
CROSSES SOUTH. SOME AREAS HAVE POPPED ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, BUT
COOL AIR WILL RETURN TOMORROW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
RENEWED CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COATING TO A FEW INCHES OF IS EXPECTED. COLDER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY, WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1251 PM EST SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARDS
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FEEDING SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO,
AND WILL HELP PRODUCE A BROKEN STRIP OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE AREAS FARTHER OUT OF LAKE ONTARIO
OR NORTH SLOPES. EVEN THEN, MAY JUST AN INCH IN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY
IN NY OR NEAR SPOTS LIKE JAY PEAK IN VT. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS
THROUGH WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. IT'LL TAKE SOME TIME
FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL, BUT WE'LL SEE STEADIER DROPS AFTER 4 AM
TOWARDS TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
ON SUNDAY, THE BOUNDARY IS GOING TO STALL, AND THEN LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ALONG A CLIPPER TYPE LOW. DESPITE
STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW 1010MB, THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM FEATURE INCREASING FGEN AND DEFORMATION, BUT NOTHING
IMPRESSIVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OR ELEVATED LAPSE RATES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE BEST MOISTURE MOVES OUT BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL BE
MODESTLY LARGE GIVEN THE COOL CONDITIONS. SO THERE WILL BE LIGHT
SNOW, AND RATIOS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH 20:1, MAYBE EVEN 25:1.
WITH ABOUT 0.05-0.20" OF QPF FORECAST, THAT SHOULD NET ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 1-4" OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5" ACROSS
THE DACKS AND HIGHER SUMMITS OF NORTHERN VERMONT. COLD AIR WILL
AGAIN GET REINFORCED BEHIND THE SYSTEM, AND WE'LL SEE NEAR 0 TO
TEENS FOR MIN TEMPERATURES. WITH THE LIGHT SNOW AND COLD
WEATHER, IT MAY BE WISE TO PLAN A FEW EXTRA MINUTES FOR
COMMUTING AND HAVE COATS AND EVERYTHING ON HAND.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1251 PM EST SATURDAY...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY. NORTH FLOW
WILL PERSIST, AND TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER IN THE 10S, EXCEPT A FEW
20 READINGS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. WITH FRESH SNOW, WE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF EARLY SEASON TEMPERATURE READINGS
BELOW 0. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS THIS TIME AROUND, BUT IT'LL
ARRIVE RELATIVELY LATE. SO WE COULD DROP OFF BEFORE WE LEVEL
OUT. THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE 0 IN THE BROADER VALLEY, AND
APPROACHING -10 F IN COLD SPOTS. WE'LL SEE HOW LOW THE
PERENNIAL COLD SPOT AT THE ADIRONDACK AIRPORT IN SARANAC LAKE
GETS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1251 PM EST SATURDAY...A UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
PASS THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING MANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE REGION
ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT
THE ONSET OF FOR ALL LOCATIONS, BUT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
RAIN WITHIN THE BROADER VALLEYS WITH SOME WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS,
WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO REMAIN
SNOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE,
WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH EVEN MORE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME FRAME, THERE IS STILL PLENTY
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE, SO
DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER. AFTER THE
BRIEF WARM UP TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND BACK TO THE COOLER SIDE FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
BACK TOWARDS VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST
TERMINALS. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, PRIMARILY AT KMSS AND KSLK, ALTHOUGH THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TRICKY TO DETERMINE OVERALL
IMPACTS. IF ANY SHOWERS PASS OVERHEAD, MVFR AND EVEN IFR REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE
TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS AT SOME OF
THE VALLEY SITES LIKE KMSS AND KBTV DUE TO CHANNELING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHTER AFTER 06Z OR
SO.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR AND IFR. DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SN, DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHSN.
THURSDAY: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL
STATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. TECHNICIANS DO
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THIS
STATION. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...KREMER
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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