650
FXUS61 KBTV 070526
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1226 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN VERMONT, WHILE A DISORGANIZED FRONT
CROSSES SOUTH. SOME AREAS HAVE POPPED ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, BUT
COOL AIR WILL RETURN TOMORROW. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
RENEWED CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COATING TO A FEW INCHES OF IS EXPECTED. COLDER
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY, WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1251 PM EST SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARDS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FEEDING SOME MOISTURE
OFF LAKE ONTARIO, AND WILL HELP PRODUCE A BROKEN STRIP OF SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE AREAS
FARTHER OUT OF LAKE ONTARIO OR NORTH SLOPES. EVEN THEN, MAY JUST
AN INCH IN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NY OR NEAR SPOTS LIKE JAY
PEAK IN VT. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. IT'LL TAKE SOME TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL,
BUT WE'LL SEE STEADIER DROPS AFTER 4 AM TOWARDS TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
ON SUNDAY, THE BOUNDARY IS GOING TO STALL, AND THEN LIFT BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ALONG A CLIPPER TYPE LOW. DESPITE
STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW 1010MB, THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM FEATURE INCREASING FGEN AND DEFORMATION, BUT NOTHING
IMPRESSIVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OR ELEVATED LAPSE RATES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE BEST MOISTURE MOVES OUT BEFORE THE UPPER
TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER WILL BE
MODESTLY LARGE GIVEN THE COOL CONDITIONS. SO THERE WILL BE LIGHT
SNOW, AND RATIOS WILL PROBABLY APPROACH 20:1, MAYBE EVEN 25:1.
WITH ABOUT 0.05-0.20" OF QPF FORECAST, THAT SHOULD NET ANYWHERE
BETWEEN 1-4" OF SNOW WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS AROUND 5" ACROSS THE
DACKS AND HIGHER SUMMITS OF NORTHERN VERMONT. COLD AIR WILL
AGAIN GET REINFORCED BEHIND THE SYSTEM, AND WE'LL SEE NEAR 0 TO
TEENS FOR MIN TEMPERATURES. WITH THE LIGHT SNOW AND COLD
WEATHER, IT MAY BE WISE TO PLAN A FEW EXTRA MINUTES FOR
COMMUTING AND HAVE COATS AND EVERYTHING ON HAND.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1251 PM EST SATURDAY...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY. NORTH
FLOW WILL PERSIST, AND TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER IN THE 10S,
EXCEPT A FEW 20 READINGS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. WITH FRESH SNOW,
WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE READINGS BELOW 0. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS THIS
TIME AROUND, BUT IT'LL ARRIVE RELATIVELY LATE. SO WE COULD DROP
OFF BEFORE WE LEVEL OUT. THIS WILL LIKELY PLACE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST ABOVE 0 IN THE
BROADER VALLEY, AND APPROACHING -10 F IN COLD SPOTS. WE'LL SEE
HOW LOW THE PERENNIAL COLD SPOT AT THE ADIRONDACK AIRPORT IN
SARANAC LAKE GETS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1251 PM EST SATURDAY...A UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE REGION, BRINGING MANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE
REGION ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET OF FOR ALL LOCATIONS, BUT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO
A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN WITHIN THE BROADER VALLEYS WITH SOME
WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT. THE
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IMPACTING
THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH EVEN MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS TIME FRAME, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE, SO DETAILS WILL STILL NEED
TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER. AFTER THE BRIEF WARM UP TO
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
TREND BACK TO THE COOLER SIDE FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY BKN/OVC VFR THROUGH 18Z OUTSIDE
BRIEF IFR/MVFR -SHSN THROUGH 07-08Z AT SELECTED NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. AFTER 18Z, MORE WIDESPREAD
IFR LIGHT SNOWS ARRIVE WEST TO EAST FOR A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD,
ENDING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (06Z ON THE 8TH). WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
SOME BRIEF NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 15-25 KTS BEHIND THIS MORNING'S
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH 08-09Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SN,
DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA,
CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL
STATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. TECHNICIANS DO
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THIS
STATION. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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