093
FXUS61 KBTV 071016 CCA
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
516 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COATING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED. COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT,
WHILE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 452 AM EST SUNDAY...SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH REFLECTIVITIES
REINVIGORATING A BIT IN THE SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. WEBCAMS
ALSO INDICATE SOME FLURRIES FALLING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INCREASED POPS IN THESE AREAS JUST TO SHOW ISOLATED/SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.
OTHERWISE, BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY, CLOUD COVER LOOKS
TO REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, WITH ANY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
STAYING LIMITED TO NORTHERN VT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE GREENS.
CLOUD COVER FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN UPDATED TO MATCH THESE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A THIN BAND OF MODERATE TO VERY BRIEFLY
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREENS, WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. NEITHER
FORCING NOR MOISTURE ARE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO
ANTICIPATE JUST LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SNOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT, BUT IT WILL QUICKLY TAPER TO MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW PUSHES TO OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
OVERALL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE 1 TO 4 INCHES, HIGHEST IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREENS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, BUT THEY WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS UP BEHIND THE LOW.
HENCE THERE COULD BE A BIT OF BLOWING SNOW IN MORE OPEN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AS WELL; AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF FRESH SNOW COVER,
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW, AND FALLING ROAD TEMPERATURES COULD MAKE FOR A
SLIPPERY MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 101 AM EST SUNDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREENS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM, EXPECT MONDAY TO
BE DRY UNDER DECREASING CLOUDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON
BREEZY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 10F TO
20F RANGE; WHEN COMBINED WITH WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH, WIND CHILLS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BE EVEN COLDER AS WIND CHILLS REMAIN BELOW -20F.
BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE OPTIMAL. THE ONLY POTENTIAL SNAG
WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THEY'LL BE
THIN AND/OR PATCHY ENOUGH TO LIMIT THEIR IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. LOWS OF -10F TO +5F SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT,
WITH SOME OF OUR USUAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
ADIRONDACKS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING -15F.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY, MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A TURN TOWARD SOUTH FLOW WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 20S, WITH A FEW SPOTS HITTING
30F.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 101 AM EST SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW LONGWAVE PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL, ALBEIT MAINLY WEAK
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWINGING THROUGH OUR AREA IN THE
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THE STRONGEST OF THESE AFFECTS OUR
REGION WED/WED EVENING WITH A CLIMO-FAVORED TRACK THROUGH THE SLV.
AS SUCH, A MIXED LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW SCENARIO WILL LIKELY UNFOLD
THROUGH THESE PERIODS WITH LATEST PROBABILISTIC DATA, INCLUDING MOST
RECENT NBM RUNS CONCURRING. QPF SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT TO
MODEST, BUT A FEW INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OUTSIDE THE BROAD VALLEYS WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PUT
A CAP ON TOTALS. THEREAFTER, A GENERAL TREND TOWARD COLDER
WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME WITH ON AND OFF
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES, MOST FAVORED IN THE
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...MAINLY BKN/OVC VFR THROUGH 18Z OUTSIDE
BRIEF IFR/MVFR -SHSN THROUGH 07-08Z AT SELECTED NORTHERN
TERMINALS WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. AFTER 18Z, MORE WIDESPREAD
IFR LIGHT SNOWS ARRIVE WEST TO EAST FOR A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD,
ENDING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (06Z ON THE 8TH). WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE
SOME BRIEF NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 15-25 KTS BEHIND THIS MORNING'S
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH 08-09Z.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SN,
DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA,
CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL
STATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. TECHNICIANS DO
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THIS
STATION. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DUELL
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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