237
FXUS61 KBTV 071802
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
102 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK CLIPPER WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD, LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. A COATING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED, ALONG WITH
CHILLY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. VERY COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOUTH WINDS PICK UP TUESDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AS UNSETTLED, BUT RELATIVELY LOW IMPACT, WEATHER WILL BE
THIS WEEK'S THEME.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1259 PM EST SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS A WARM FRONT STAGNATES OVERHEAD. THE BREAKDOWN
HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING SOUTH AND IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST AS
WEAK 1013MB LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. FORCING WILL PRIMARILY
COME FROM THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND INCREASED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH ABOUT NOW AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HREF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.25-0.50"/HR,
AND WITH ABOUT A 6-9 HOUR SPAN OF PRECIPITATION, THAT GETS YOU
ABOUT 1-4". THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN REMOTE
CORNERS OF THE ADIRONDACKS, WHERE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE
POSSIBLE AS 850-700MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE TOWARDS 8 C/KM NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW AROUND 7 PM OR SO. MOST
INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION, BUT PARTS OF THE DACKS
COULD BE GRAZED BY SOME HIGHER RATES, AS A RESULT.
COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SETTLE IN OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE WEAKNESS
OF THE SURFACE LOW, A 1030MB HIGH WILL QUICKLY AIM TO TAKE ITS
PLACE, RESULTING IN MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS. WITH 10 MPH WINDS AND
GUSTS TO 20 WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5 AND -15 EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
WITH FRESH SNOW HAVING FALLEN OVERNIGHT AND THE COOL TEMPERATURES,
IT'LL BE PRUDENT TO GET AN EARLY START AND LAYER UP. ADDITIONALLY,
EXAMINATION OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE SUGGESTS ABOUT 600 J/KG AVAILABLE
WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW AS LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS NEAR
THE DGZ AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. FV3-WRF AND NAM 3KM INDICATES
SOME STRIPS IN VERMONT'S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND INTRODUCED
HIGHER POPS OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.
ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL EXIT THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM SOON AFTER
SUNRISE AND WINDS SLACKEN. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL
LIKELY PREVENT MOST FROM REACHING ABOVE 20, MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT. THE CHALLENGE
WILL REMAIN CLOUDS. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR RELATIVELY SCATTERED
IN NATURE. SO WHILE NOT AS COLD AS A FEW NIGHTS AGO, WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO PARTIALLY RADIATE AND SEE MOST LOCATIONS RANGE NEAR 0
IN THE BROADER VALLEYS, AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR
EVERYONE ELSE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 1259 PM EST SUNDAY...THE NEXT ON OUR TRAIN OF SYSTEMS WILL
ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY EVENING. UNTIL THEN, ANOTHER COOL AND BREEZY DAY
WILL BE AHEAD OF US. SOUTH WINDS WILL BLOW 10-15 MPH WITH CHANNELED
GUSTS 25 MPH UP TO 30 NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN. SOUTH FLOW WILL ALLOW US
TO QUICKLY MODERATE FROM THE MORNING CHILL, AND WE'LL CLIMB SOLIDLY
INTO THE 20S WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 30 IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING WHEN BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING TIED TO THE UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES. ATMOSPHERIC
FLOW WILL BE FAST ALOFT, WITH 850MB WINDS ALSO AROUND 50 KNOTS. SO
THIS SYSTEM WILL RACE EAST, AND THERE WILL BE TERRAIN SHADOWING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY, CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM, WHEREAS SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
GREENS WILL BENEFIT FROM OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. OVERALL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TOWARDS A WEAKER SYSTEM, AND SO MAINLY A COATING OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1259 PM EST SUNDAY...A UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH
THE REGION, BRINGING MANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT SYSTEM
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE REGION ALONG THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET OF
FOR ALL LOCATIONS, BUT TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY LOOK TO
WARM ENOUGH FOR A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN WITHIN THE
BROADER VALLEYS, WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN COLD
ENOUGH TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT. FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK, A TREND TOWARDS COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN
BELOW NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SNOWFALL CURRENTLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WITH INTERVALS OF IFR
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SNOW WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARDS THE VERY END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD SOME IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR IS EXPECTED AS DRY AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO DECREASE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BECOMING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SN,
DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR. LIKELY RA, CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL
STATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. TECHNICIANS DO
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THIS
STATION. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HAYNES
NEAR TERM...HAYNES
SHORT TERM...HAYNES
LONG TERM...KREMER
AVIATION...KREMER
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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