044
FXUS61 KBTV 081820
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
120 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY, BUT VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE SOUTH WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF WARM
UP MID WEEK, COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BY WEEK'S END.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 119 PM EST MONDAY...DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DESPITE THE
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY
WARMED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
A FRESH SNOWPACK AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING. CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO
NEAR TO BELOW ZERO AREAWIDE, WITH PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM CLOSE TO -15F, ALTHOUGH THESE VALUES COULD CHANGE
IF CLOUD COVER MOVES INTO THE REGION FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.
A GRADUALLY WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANNELING IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE, WHILE ELSEWHERE GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 20 MPH. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TODAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. THE SHORTWAVE, AND ANY
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION, WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY EVENING, WITH JUST A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW EXPECTED IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A POSSIBLE
INCH OR SO EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM QUICKLY FOLLOWING BEHIND
FOR WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 119 PM EST MONDAY...THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH MORE LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN TO MIX INTO THE BROADER VALLEYS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S, BUT GIVEN COLD
PROFILES, WOULD ANTICIPATE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS
SNOW. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND AREAS ALONG THE GREEN MOUNTAINS WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SUMMITS. ELSEWHERE, 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
ARE EXPECTED, BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER
AS ANY CHANGES IN THERMAL PROFILES WILL LIKELY IMPACT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE, SO ANY TRAVELERS
WILL NEED TO USE CAUTION.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 119 PM EST MONDAY...UPSLOPE AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PULLS NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE THROUGH
NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR AND FLOW CONTINUES OUT OF THE WEST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN ONE ANOTHER ON LOCATION AND TRACK OF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH COULD IMPACT HOW
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE. REGARDLESS, SNOW
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK
TO SWING BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S, AND LOWS THOSE NIGHTS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.
TEMPERATURES KEEP TRENDING DOWNWARDS INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND LOWS GETTING DOWN AS LOW AS NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. MODEL CONSENSUS IS NOT SUPER
STRONG DURING THIS PERIOD EITHER PERTAINING TO OUR NEXT QUICK
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO THE
REGION, AND THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WOULD ALSO IMPACT THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF COLD AIR. IT'S DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM ITSELF ON MODEL SOLUTIONS, AND IT MAY COME DOWN TO
MORE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
THAN A REAL DEFINED SURFACE FEATURE.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN
ONTARIO IS PROVIDING US SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH VFR
DOMINATING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SOME
LINGERING FEW CLOUDS AROUND 2300-4500 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WILL
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, CONTINUING VFR CLEAR SKIES INTO
THE EVENING. MPV HAS NOTABLY HAD SOME BLOWING SNOW ON AND OFF THIS
MORNING, BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS WINDS ARE DECREASING.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/TERRAIN DRIVEN BELOW 5 MILES,
SOME SITES GOING CALM FOR A FEW HOURS.
MODEL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES APPEAR REASONABLY DRY AT THE SURFACE, SO
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING FOG TONIGHT DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS. SOME MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE SOME LOWERED VIS AT
MPV TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 10Z-14Z TUESDAY OF 5-7 MILES, BUT THIS
IS OVERALL A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AND DOES NOT HAVE
MUCH SUPPORT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AROUND
09Z-15Z TUESDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA (CIGS 9,000 FEET
AND HIGHER). PROB30S FOR ARRIVING SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE NECESSARY
BEYOND 00Z WEDNESDAY AS THAT TIME FRAME COMES INTO FOCUS IN FUTURE
TAF ISSUANCES, BUT STAY TUNED.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SN,
DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
EQUIPMENT MALFUNCTIONS AT THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL
STATION WILL LIKELY LEAVE IT INOPERABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME. THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. TECHNICIANS DO
NOT CURRENTLY HAVE AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE FOR THIS
STATION. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, AND PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KREMER
NEAR TERM...KREMER
SHORT TERM...KREMER
LONG TERM...STORM
AVIATION...STORM
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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