276
FXUS61 KBTV 222352
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
652 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING STEADY LIGHT SNOW
STARTING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
LIKELY BRING AT LEAST SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. QUIETER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY, THOUGH A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 652 PM EST MONDAY...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHOW HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN VERMONT AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK WHERE A LARGE AREA OF STEADY, ACCUMULATING
SNOW HAS BLOSSOMED. A FRESH COATING TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WHEN IT TAPERS OFF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT 925 AND 850 MILLIBARS OVERHEAD AND IT WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE EAST CONSISTENT WITH RADAR TRENDS, AS MOISTURE
BECOMES TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH WHILE WEAK LIFT
LINGERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN
PUSHING EAST AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TODAY. LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP RATES LOW, BUT RELATIVELY LONG DURATION COULD
ALLOW A FEW AREAS TO REACH CLOSE TO AN INCH. VERY DRY LOW LEVELS
WILL CAUSE SOME SUBLIMATION, BUT IT WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO STOP THE
SNOW FROM REACHING THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND
TWENTIES WILL CAUSE NO TROUBLE FOR THIS SNOW TO ACCUMULATE, DESPITE
THE VERY LOW RATES. THIS INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW, BUT IT WILL BE MUCH LESS STRONG THAN WITH THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE SYSTEMS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 136 PM EST MONDAY...A MORE IMPACTFUL BUT STILL RELATIVELY WEAK
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. OVERALL, MODELS
HAVE CONVERGED ON A GENERAL SOLUTION AND CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ON
THE IMPACTS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FAR TO THE NORTH CLOSE TO
JAMES BAY AND THEN QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST AS IT RUNS INTO A NEARLY
STATIONARY RIDGE SITUATED OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. THERE WILL BE MODEST
OVERRUNNING ALONG A NARROW AXIS EXTENDING WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW
THAT WILL VERY GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHEAST. RIGHT NOW, THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT LIGHT SNOW WILL ENTER SOUTHWESTERN AREAS IN THE MORNING AND
NORTHEASTERN AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE EVENTUALLY PUSHING TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE RELATIVELY LONG RESIDENCE TIME OF THE SNOW,
DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW RATES, WILL ALLOW FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE A FEW
INCHES. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHAMPLAIN, ST. LAWRENCE AND
LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS SHOULD SEE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES,
WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE SEES 3-5. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL OCCUR IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK TUESDAY EVENING, THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE MAY LOSE MOISTURE.
THIS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY
AS RIGHT NOW THERE SHOULD JUST BE ENOUGH CLOUD ICE. THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE WILL ALSO BE LOWERING INTO THE REMAINING MOISTURE AS IT
RETREATS INTO LOWER LEVELS. UPSLOPE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE
BACKSIDE INTO WEDNESDAY, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH AND CAUSES MIXING IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION
PROFILE, BUT A WEAKER JET SHOULD CAUSE GUSTS TO ONLY BE IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1257 PM EST MONDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW
CROSSES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE SPINE OF THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
AT THIS POINT ONLY EXPECTING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW AT
MOST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRIDAY.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF OUR REGION FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF MODEL TO MODEL OR RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE YET, BUT WILL HAVE A BETTER
IDEA AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FORECAST. WEATHER LOOKS DRIER AND QUIETER ON
SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOVE
FREEZING ON SUNDAY, THEREFORE MAY HAVE RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO CONTEND WITH. AT THIS TIME WE ARE MUCH TOO FAR
OUT TO GET OVERLY DETAILED WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE, BUT THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING THAT WE'RE WATCHING. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER OUR REGION AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST, THEREFORE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CARRY US INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION LIGHT, LOW DENSITY
SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES MAINLY BETWEEN 1 AND 2 STATUTE MILES HAS
BLOSSOMED OVER MUCH OF THE AIRSPACE EAST OF MSS AND NORTH OF
RUT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED, GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF AND SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 4 HOURS. AS SUCH,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TONIGHT WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS.
A LARGER AREA OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS STILL ON
TRACK TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, ROUGHLY
FROM 15Z TO 19Z, WITH STEADY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWING ONSET OF SNOW. CHARACTER OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WETTER SIDE OF AVERAGE, ROUGHLY
11 OR 12 TO 1 SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS. SURFACE WINDS WILL TEND TO BE
LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY, EXCEPT AT MSS WHERE LIGHT (UNDER 10 KNOTS)
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MVFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN, CHANCE
SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
THE TEMPERATURE SENSOR AT MASSENA ASOS/RICHARDS FIELD HAS BEEN
READING TOO HIGH. TECHNICIANS HAVE PLANS TO VISIT THE SITE TO
DIAGNOSE THE ISSUE IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>020.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ029>031-034.
SYNOPSIS...MYSKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF/MYSKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...MYSKOWSKI
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF/NEILES
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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