448
FXUS61 KBTV 240659
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
159 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
CONFINED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AS DRIER AND COLDER AIR RETURNS.
A RENEWED CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW COMES TO US CHRISTMAS DAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS, WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHWARD FOLLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT. IN
ITS WAKE, FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS IN THE MORNING. THEREAFTER, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX
POSSIBLE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 144 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE BULK OF THE STEADY SNOW
REMAINING IN OUR SNOWFALL EVENT WILL BE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS THE SURFACE LOW COMBINES WITH A VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA
COMING IN FROM THE WEST. THEN THE LOW WILL BECOME MORE ELONGATED
AS IT SHIFTS INTO EASTERN VERMONT AROUND DAYBREAK AND OUR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS WITH PRECIPITATION WINDING DOWN.
MEANWHILE, THE TROUGH WILL STALL OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS HEAVY
SNOW DEVELOPS IN SOUTHERN MAINE WHERE BEST CONVERGENT FLOW WILL
RESIDE. IN CONTRAST, OUR REGION SHOULD SEE ONLY RELATIVELY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MARGINALLY
COLD AIR IN A SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER THAT SUGGESTS VALLEYS WILL SEE
LITTLE ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY, AND WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE BETTER SNOW GROWTH/CLOUD DEPTH, THE LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE LIGHTER ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THAN OUR PREVIOUS
FORECAST INDICATED. THAT BEING SAID, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING IN MUCH OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN GREENS AND IN
THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
THE OTHER STORY TODAY WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WITH A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS, WHERE WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO EXCEED 25 MPH AT
TIMES COMBINED WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING TO US BY WAY OF CANADA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
COULD HELP GENERATE VERY LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT, BUT MOSTLY
VIRGA, BEFORE THE SYSTEM'S DIFFUSE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. ON CHRISTMAS DAY WE WILL SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN LACK OF ORGANIZED SNOW SHOWERS,
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AS COLDER AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS SOUTHWARD. THE INSTABILITY WILL
TEND TO INCREASE AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
HOWEVER, WITHOUT LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY, CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS ARE PRETTY ACTIVITY WILL NOT BE ORGANIZED TO
MAKE IT TOO CLEAN CUT THAT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN NORTHERN AREAS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH LOW LEVEL COOLING
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR, VALLEYS, ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF THE
HIGHER PEAKS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS, WILL TEND TO BE TOO
DRY TO SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION (MORE FLURRIES THAN ANYTHING
MEASURABLE), BUT EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL WILL SEE AT LEAST A
SHOWER OR TWO DURING THE DAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNBLOCKED WITH INVERSIONS ABOVE MOUNTAIN SUMMIT
LEVEL, SUCH THAT WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY WITH EXCELLENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO SHOW GUSTS NEAR OR
OVER 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
THE REMAINDER OF VERMONT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP. BY EVENING
AS TEMPERATURES SLIP INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, WIND CHILLS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 144 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE STORY WILL BE FRIGID AIR AS
925 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 3RD TO 5TH PERCENTILE IN
THE CLIMATOLOGY, WITH VALUES FRIDAY MORNING BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE -21 TO -24 CELSIUS RANGE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (~1034
MILLIBARS) NOT FAR TO OUR NORTH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, LIKELY SITTING JUST NORTH OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AROUND MIDDAY. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW GOING
AND KEEP INVERSION HEIGHTS LOW/NEAR THE 925 MILLIBAR LEVEL. THIS
PATTERN WILL LIMIT WARMING AND OUR CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS WOULD
MAKE FOR THE COLDEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN YET THIS
MONTH IN MANY LOCATIONS; HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS. EVEN WITH LIGHT WIND SPEEDS,
WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES TO THE EAST
LATE IN THE DAY, TEMPERATURES COULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RISE
EVEN AFTER SUNSET WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION CEASING. SKIES WILL
TEND TO BE OVERCAST, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE HIGH ALTITUDE ONES,
WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO THICKEN WITH TIME AND FROM THE WEST, AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1246 AM EST WEDNESDAY...OUR ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
THE LONG TERM, WITH SOME FORM OF SYSTEM COMING THROUGH EVERY 36
HOURS OR SO. SATURDAY WILL HAVE A CLIPPER PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THE
MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING THIS SYSTEM DELIVERING AN
ALMOST GLANCING BLOW AS IT MOVES TOO FAR SOUTH TO PACK TOO MUCH OF A
PUNCH, BUT WHAT PRECIP DOES FALL WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW AS
TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE CWA. THE MOST
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL COME BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH WILL LIKELY
HAVE SOME FORM OF MIXED PRECIPITATION. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A SPLIT
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SYSTEMS, WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WARMER
SOLUTION THAT WOULD BRING IN MORE SLEET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING RAIN WHILE THE GFS WOULD BE A PRIMARILY SNOW FORECAST. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, WE LOOK TO GET SOME MORE SNOW
LINGERING ON THE BACKSIDE LASTING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH
THE CWA ALONG A TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, SWITCHING THE WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES, SNOW WILL
DIE DOWN AND LEAVE US WITH PRIMARILY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BKN MVFR SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW.
MARINE
A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD (ABOUT SIX HOURS) OF SEASONABLY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EFFECTIVELY MIX THIS MORNING WITH 20
TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED ON THE BROAD WATERS. AS A RESULT, WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE BEFORE
RAMPING DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS RELAX INTO THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-
004-006>008-010-016>020.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ029>031-034.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF
LONG TERM...LANGBAUER
AVIATION...LANGBAUER
MARINE...KUTIKOFF
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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