347
FXUS61 KBTV 250709
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
209 AM EST THU DEC 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THE TERRAIN DRIVEN NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES IN THE NORTHERN GREENS AND
ADIRONDACKS. FRIDAY WILL BE SHARPLY COLDER FOLLOWING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE, MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO IN THE MORNING. THE NEXT IMPACTFUL SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE ON MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
RADAR SHOWS SNOW APPROACHING NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT FROM THE
NORTH. THE PRIMARY PUSH OF SNOW SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 15Z,
BRINGING AN INCH OR TWO TO MANY LOCATIONS. CAMS ARE SUGGESTING SOME
THE NORTHERN GREENS MIGHT HOLD ON TO SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SOUTH OF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN. FOLLOWING THE SNOW, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO THE AREA DROPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN VERMONT WILL BE THE WARMEST LOCATION IN OUR
FORECAST AREA BUT IS STILL SHOWING A 20% CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW
ZERO.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 205 AM EST THURSDAY...THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING INTO THE TEENS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS REMAINING IN COLDER AND
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ROUTINELY
SHOWED THIS SYSTEM DELIVERING A GLANCING BLOW TO US, WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL IN SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, WITH THE
REST OF OUR AREA ONLY SEEING SOME FLURRIES. THE NAM3 IS NOW
DIVERGING FROM THAT CONSENSUS, WITH A LOW PASSAGE FAR ENOUGH NORTH
TN ON TO BRING MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL TO VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HIGH RES MODELS AS THEY HONE
IN ON THIS SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 205 AM EST THURSDAY...WE REMAIN ON TRACK TO SEE A CLASSIC SETUP
FOR TRANSIENT, FREEZING RAIN AS AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS TO OUR WEST WITH A RETREATING, COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST. WHILE WE MAINTAINED MENTION OF SNOW WITH SOME INHERENT
PRECIPITATION TYPE QUESTIONS IN THIS TIME RANGE (EG. SOME GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST SNOW IS POSSIBLE), THERE REALLY IS A STRONG
CONSENSUS OF MAINLY FREEZING RAIN/RAIN SCENARIO SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND
WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY. EXPECT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY WITH AT LEAST LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN GIVEN COLD SURFACE CONDITIONS AND ONLY A LIGHT
925/SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THIS PERIOD. PRELIMINARY
THOUGHTS FOR ICE AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 0.1" TO 0.25" OF FLAT ICE,
AND LOCALLY 0.5", SEEMS REASONABLE FOR MOST OF THE REGION AT THIS
TIME, WITH MAYBE A TRACE OF ICE IN SOME AREAS THAT WARM ABOVE
FREEZING RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN THESE SCENARIO WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WIND, SUCH AS IN SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS WITH THIS EVENT WOULD BE RELATED TO
GUSTY WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE STORM.
THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX SUPPORTS NOTEWORTHY, IF NOT
PARTICULARLY UNUSUAL, WESTERLY WIND GUSTS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD WE'LL ALSO TARGET LAKE-
EFFECT/TERRAIN-DRIVEN HEAVIER SNOW POTENTIAL, AND GENERALLY FINE-
TUNE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND SEASONABLY
COLD AIR WILL SET UP MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW IN OUR REGION
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...IT'S A SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE AIRSPACE WITH REGARDS TO OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE 06Z-09Z PERIOD, THEN CHANCES OF
SNOW, EXCEPT AT RUT, BECOME GREATER IN THE 10Z-12Z TIMEFRAME AHEAD
OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. ASIDE FROM THE SNOW, CEILINGS ARE LARGELY
VFR EXCEPT AT EFK WHERE CLOUD BASES HAVE BEEN STEADY BETWEEN 15-20
KFT FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS. IN THAT 10Z-12Z PERIOD, AND LINGERING
TOWARDS 14Z AT MPV AND SLK, PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED AS SNOW BECOMES MORE STEADY.
LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO WESTERLY TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY, WHICH WILL TEND TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WITH 20-25 KNOTS COMMON, ESPECIALLY FROM 16Z TO
00Z. WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 10Z-14Z PERIOD, MOST
LIKELY AT MPV/SLK/EFK/RUT, IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS 2000
FT WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE FZRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN, SLIGHT CHANCE PL.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. DEFINITE FZRA, LIKELY PL, LIKELY SN.
MONDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE SN,
DEFINITE FZRA, DEFINITE PL.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LANGBAUER
NEAR TERM...LANGBAUER
SHORT TERM...LANGBAUER
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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