052
FXUS61 KBTV 270605
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
105 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WHILE THE HEAVIEST
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO SOUTHWESTERN VERMONT. ELSEWHERE, AMOUNTS WILL
BE 2 INCHES OR LESS. THIS SNOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT ON SATURDAY
MORNING. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 136 PM EST FRIDAY...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE COUNTY, EFFECTIVE FROM 4 PM TODAY TO 6 AM
SATURDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE
ADVISORY AREA, ALONG WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EVENING.
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY.
WE'VE HAD A COLD AND QUIET DAY SO FAR TODAY, WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW/MID TEENS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LIES POISED JUST OFF TO
OUR WEST, WITH A BROAD SWATH OF PRECIPITATION ALREADY MOVING INTO
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY/PA. THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS
PRECIPITATION LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE. THIS
FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY BEING SHUNTED
SOUTHWARD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IMPRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE DIFFICULTY HAS BEEN NAILING
DOWN THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND.
AFTER YET ANOTHER NORTHWARD SWING IN THE 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE,
THE 12Z GUIDANCE ADJUSTED BACK SOUTHWARD, THOUGH FURTHER NORTH THAN
WHAT WE SAW AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, EVEN THIS RELATIVELY
MINOR SHIFT IN TRACK HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO DRASTICALLY AFFECT POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL TOTALS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
CORE OF THE BAND, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 3 IN/HR AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD INTO EAST-CENTAL NY. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS BAND, WHICH WILL EXHIBIT A VERY TIGHT SNOWFALL
GRADIENT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND WILL BRUSH ALONG THE SOUTHERN ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY BORDER, INTO SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY, THEN GET SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD AS A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE NJ/MD COAST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY, SO OVERALL
RESIDENCE TIME ACROSS OUR REGION WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT, ROUGHLY
12-15 HOURS OR SO, WHICH HELPS TO LIMIT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS. STILL,
EXPECT AREAS CLOSEST TO THE SNOW BAND WILL SEE 3-5 INCHES BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN FAR
SOUTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS DROPS OFF
QUICKLY AS ONE HEADS NORTHEAST, GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A MASSENA-BURLINGTON-WHITE RIVER JUNCTION LINE, THEN
DROPPING OFF TO LITTLE OR NO SNOW BY THE TIME YOU GET INTO THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SNOW BAND AND THE FACT
THAT MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER WITH WHERE THE BAND AXIS WILL BE, HAVE
GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ST
LAWRENCE COUNTY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THOSE AREAS SEEING 4+
INCHES OF SNOW, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
CLOSELY GOING FORWARD.
THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, AND ANTICIPATE WE'LL START TO SEE BREAKS OF SUN BY MID DAY.
WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, AND WITH HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO UPPER 20S, SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY PLEASANT FOR
ANY AFTER-CHRISTMAS ACTIVITIES. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY
THOUGH, WITH HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. WHILE IT
SHOULDN'T BE AS COLD AS WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING, STILL ANTICIPATE
LOWS TO BE IN THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 136 PM EST FRIDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST
DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY, KEEPING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DRY.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS
TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. WINDS WILL
TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, RESULTING
IN INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION. SO HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN
SATURDAY IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDS; WE SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. WHILE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
SCOUR OUT, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY, AND EAST OF THE GREENS, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO 2-5C BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE THE START
OF A FAIRLY PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. WHILE THERE MAY BE A
BIT OF SNOW AND/OR SLEET MIXED IN AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, DRY
AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND BEFORE
THE WARMING TAKES PLACE, SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY START OUT AS
FREEZING RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM OVERNIGHT,
BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
DAYBREAK MONDAY. THE RESULT WILL LIKELY BE A SLIPPERY MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE, SO PLEASE PLAN AHEAD IF YOU'LL BE ON THE ROADS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 136 PM EST FRIDAY...BY MONDAY MORNING, THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE QUIET STRONG. WHILE COLD AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED AT THE
SURFACE, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GREENS, THE LACK OF A STRONG HIGH
TO THE NORTH SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE TO WARM ABOVE
FREEZING BY SOME POINT MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME EFFECTS OF A HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR THE
NORTHERN HUDSON BAY THAT WILL GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE INCOMING
SYSTEM AND A LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS WILL
LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO ONLY KEEP TEMPERATURES RISING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST PLACES. CURRENTLY, FORECAST ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 0.15 TO 0.35 INCH RANGE. THIS
WOULD CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
GREENS, BUT NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF POWER
OUTAGES. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND SLOW DOWN
AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WINDY START TO
THE WEEK AND CAUSE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER AT LEAST INTO
MIDWEEK. THE GENERAL TROUGHING LOOKS TO STICK AROUND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS EVERY DAY THIS
WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF THE
NORTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS. OVERALL, WE ARE SETTLING INTO A
TYPICAL COLD WINTER PATTERN FOR AWHILE!
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FALLING ACROSS MOST OF
OUR TAF SITES AT 06Z BUT WILL BE EXITING BY 09-10Z. MVFR-IFR
WITH THE SNOW THEN SHOULD PRIMARILY VFR WITH VSBY BUT SOME MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT 5-7 KTS OR LESS BUT NE
8-15 KTS AT KMSS BUT THAT WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS
MORNING.
DRIER AIR IS POISED FOR THE REGION, BUT THERE IS A DEVELOPING
INVERSION AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW CLOUDS FOR SOME BUT
WITH TIME LATER THIS AFTERNOON IT SHOULD BE SCT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS < 7KTS FOR ALL SITES.
ONE CONCERN, ESPECIALLY AT KSLK IS STRENGHTENING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WHERE BKN-OVC005 DECK AND REDCUED VSBY DUE TO ICE FOG
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE FZRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
DEFINITE FZRA, DEFINITE SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. LIKELY SN, CHANCE FZRA.
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ029-087.
SYNOPSIS...HASTINGS
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...TABER/SLW
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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