012
FXUS61 KBTV 280822
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
322 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR WEST WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW,
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO PLAIN RAIN. LATER TOMORROW INTO
MIDWEEK, OUR WEATHER WILL TURN WINTRY AGAIN AS WE SEE GUSTY AND
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS. COLD
WEATHER WITH LESSER CHANCES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR TO START THE THE
NEW YEAR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 321 AM EST SUNDAY...
*A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT AREAWIDE DUE TO ICY
TRAVEL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL
THREAT OF ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS
WIDESPREAD, WITH SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN AMOUNTS AVERAGING
0.3" TO 0.5" OF FLAT ICE ON TRACK FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY,
SOUTHERN/EASTERN ADIRONDACKS, AND MUCH OF VERMONT EAST OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE.
*A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AS
WELL, FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM MONDAY, WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED.
A STRONG WINTER STORM IS TAKING SHAPE TODAY OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US PHASES WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE ROCKIES. AN IMPRESSIVE
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS EXPECTED; HIGH MAGNITUDES OF INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP MOISTURE WILL INTENSIFY OUT AHEAD OF
THE STORM, AIMED TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. THIS PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE WILL
MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF RAIN, WHICH WILL BE RUNNING INTO COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE. THE GREATEST IMPACTS THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE FOR OUR AREA WILL BE TRAVEL RELATED, ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET
WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE COLDEST. GENERALLY STEADY RAIN WILL BEGIN AS
IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD, BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK, 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT THROUGH
THE I-89 CORRIDOR, AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL TEND TO BE IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS SUCH, THREAT OF GREATEST ICE ACCRETION,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLAT ICE AMOUNTS TO EXCEED 0.5" PER 90TH
PERCENTILE HREF MODEL FRAM OUTPUT, WILL BE IN PROTECTED VALLEYS IN
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT AND SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY, NEW YORK. THAT BEING
SAID, ICE TO LIQUID RATIOS WILL TEND TO BE HIGHER IN THE NORTHERN
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO CHANNELING WIND EFFECTS THAT MAY
COMPENSATE FOR LESS PRECIPITATION. OVERALL, EXPECT BOTH OF THESE
AREAS WILL SEE UTILITY IMPACTS, WHILE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA SEES MAINLY TRAVEL ISSUES. NOTE TIMING OF THIS EVENT
BEING MAINLY AT NIGHT WILL MEAN PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO WARM EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES SURPASS 32 DEGREES. NOTE THE
SOUTHWESTERLY JET RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SOAKING RAIN WILL PRODUCE VERY
WARM AND HUMID AIR ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND SHOULD GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SHALLOW COLD AIR TO CHANGE FREEZING RAIN TO PLAIN RAIN
EVERYWHERE MONDAY MORNING.
LINGERING POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY IN
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT, BUT DURING THE DAY THE STORY WILL SWITCH TO
THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ALREADY BE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK
MID-MORNING. AN IMPRESSIVE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT
EASTWARD, WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING FROM WELL ABOVE
FREEZING TO WELL BELOW FREEZING IN A MATTER OF A COUPLE OF HOURS, AS
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES TO AN ELEVATIONALLY DEPENDENT RAIN OR
SNOW. ALONG WITH THE COOLING WILL BE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WINDS,
WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 50 MPH LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH CONTINUED COOLING, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST, RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY
SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE GIVEN
LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS FRONTOGENESIS OCCURS AMIDST
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN VERMONT, CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR
SNOW LEVELS TO PLUMMET IN TIME FOR MID-SLOPE AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW BY EARLY EVENING, WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TO THE VALLEYS AT THE NEW HAMPSHIRE BORDER BY ABOUT
7 PM. THE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE RATHER INTENSE WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY, ADDING ANOTHER HAZARD TO CONTEND
WITH FOR MOTORISTS AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
EVENING IN NORTHERN VERMONT. WITH PLENTY OF WESTERLY WIND AS WELL
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH, THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD EFFECTIVELY BE
SNOW SQUALLS.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 321 AM EST SUNDAY...
*BITTER COLD RETURNS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
A SUB 980 MILLIBAR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OCCLUDING TO OUR
NORTH ON TUESDAY, CURLING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AS A
GYRE DEVELOPS ACROSS QUEBEC. THIS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SUPPLY
US WITH VERY COLD AIR AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
WITH INVERSION HEIGHT ABOVE SUMMIT LEVEL WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. BRUTALLY COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE TOO
COLD TO SEE HIGH FLUFF FACTOR FOR THE SNOW, WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -20 CELSIUS AND CLOUD LAYERS NEAR OR
BELOW THAT TEMPERATURE. ONLY DUE TO THE DEEP MIXING WILL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, NOT BE AS COLD AS IN
RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER
10S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 321 AM EST SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET STRETCH OF THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE REFLECTION INCLUDING AN
ARCTIC FRONT THAT IS STILL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SNOW SHOWERS
THAT MAY LINGER INTO NEW YEARS EVE PLANS WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED
SNSQ WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IF TRAVELING IS IN YOUR PLANS WED-WED NGT.
THEREAFTER...CONTINUED COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS GREAT LAKES, NE AND
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP THINGS COLD WITH POTENTIALLY MORE
-SHSN AT VARIOUS TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT NO BLOCKBUSTER STORMS ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS POTENTIAL
FOR FZFG/BR OR HZ AT MSS/SLK, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRES ACROSS OUR REGION RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT, BUT A SHARPENING LOW LEVEL INVERSION
WITH TEMPS DROPPING 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW CROSS OVER VALUES AT
SLK. THIS INCREASES THE PROBABILITY OF SHALLOW/PATCHY GROUND FOG
DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE TEMPO FOR
IFR BTWN 08-12Z AT SLK AND MSS. REST OF OUR TAF SITES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN WINDS.
AFT 12Z...HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE ACRS CWA BUT DON'T LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ARD/AFT 00Z FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. PCPN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF FREEZING
RAIN THROUGH 06Z MON AND LLWS WILL BEGIN LATE IN THIS PERIOD AS
WELL. KMSS WILL SEE INCREASING SFC WINDS FROM NE AT 6-10 KTS AND
LIKELY INCREASING AFT 06Z.
LOTS OF TRANSITIONS TO TAKE PLACE 06-12Z MONDAY AND BEYOND.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DEFINITE FZRA, CHANCE
SN.
MONDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
35 KT. DEFINITE RA, DEFINITE FZRA, LIKELY SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE. WINDY
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. LIKELY SHSN.
TUESDAY: VFR. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHSN.
NEW YEARS DAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY FOR VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-087.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ026-087.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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