034
FXUS61 KBTV 060728
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
228 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION ONCE AGAIN, WITH AROUND ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED. OUR WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING A WARMER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 225 AM EST TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, REACHING
WESTERN NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO
OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS LOW
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT, A SECONDARY
LOW WILL FORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AS WELL. MOST LIKELY
TIMEFRAME FOR PRECIPITATION, AND TIMING THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE
HEAVIEST IS BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WELL EAST OF OUR
AREA, AND PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN IN OUR REGION. AROUND TWO
TENTHS TO FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED, THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME BRIEF MIXED PRECIPITATION, WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION IN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCRETION IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH NOT LIKELY. SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH UP TO THREE INCHES, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 225 AM EST TUESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 225 AM EST TUESDAY...
* A THAW WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW MELT AND MODEST RAINFALL
STILL IS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY.
* TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDER CONDITIONS RETURNING DURING THE
WEEKEND, SUPPORTING A POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX TO SNOW LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
A SEASONABLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY JET IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
MORNING WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY MIX OUT SHALLOW COLD AIR. IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE ANY BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
COLD FRONT TO SPAWN PRECIPITATION WHEN THIS COLD AIR IS STILL
PRESENT, SO GENERALLY WE HAVE A VERY LOW CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE
FREEZING RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS, HEAVY
AT TIMES GIVEN A PLUME OF ANOMALOUS INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH A FEED OF GULF MOISTURE, CROSSES THE
REGION QUICKLY DURING THE DAY DURING A PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW MELT GIVEN COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE WIND AND TEMPERATURES
TO BE AN EFFICIENT SNOW EATER. THANKFULLY, DURATION OF THE THAW
LOOKS LIMITED AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY EVENING, AND AS
SUCH WE CONTINUE TO SEE A LOW THREAT OF ANYTHING MORE THAN
NUISANCE PONDING OF WATER AND ICE MOVEMENT. THE BIG QUESTION
CONTINUES TO BE HOW SIGNIFICANTLY THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AHEAD OF
A LIKELY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL FOLLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PHASES IN SOME FASHION WITH
ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. COMPARING DATA FROM 12 HOURS
PRIOR, THERE IS A SHIFT TOWARDS COLDER CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS
STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO OFFER ANYTHING DETERMINISTICALLY
OTHER THAN RAIN/SNOW AT THIS TIME. A WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING
FREEZING RAIN, CERTAINLY LOOKS PLAUSIBLE IN THIS PATTERN AS WARM
AIR ALOFT LINGERS WITH POLAR HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST
CIRCULATING SHALLOW COLD AIR WESTWARD. CHANCES FOR WINTRY
WEATHER TRENDS SHARPLY TOWARDS SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS
ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN PROBABLE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURES.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS GENERALLY SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND OF 925 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE, EXCEPT AT SLK WHERE CEILINGS ARE A BIT LOWER THAN OTHER
TERMINALS. A STRATUS DECK WITH SOME MIST WILL PERSIST IN A
PATTERN OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH MOIST
ADVECTION ON SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE OVERRUNNING
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE WINDS ARE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY CONCERN WITH LLWS. MOVING TOWARDS 12Z, THE
LOWEST CEILINGS WILL TEND TO SCATTER AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL SPREAD SNOW IN QUICKLY FROM THE WEST NEAR
OR JUST AFTER 00Z. HAVE SHOWN LARGELY STEADY IFR SNOW IN THIS
TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH INTERVALS OF LIFR SNOW ARE PROBABLE WITH
BRIEFLY HEAVIER SNOW RATES. THIS SNOW WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE OF
AVERAGE, BUT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME WINTRY MIX AT TIMES,
PRIMARILY FOR MSS, SLK, AND RUT. PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN
AND ICE PELLETS ARE TOO LOW TO INDICATE AT THIS TIME IN TAF BUT
WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED. WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATE IN
THE PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, ESPECIALLY AT VERMONT
TERMINALS, BUT REMAIN MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE FZRA.
FRIDAY: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA, SLIGHT CHANCE
FZRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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