490
FXUS61 KBTV 070720
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
220 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA THIS MORNING, THEN SLIDES EASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OUR WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION,
INCLUDING A WARMER SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES TO OUR NORTHWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 220 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LAKE ONTARIO CURRENTLY WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS SECONDARY LOW STRENGTHENS, IT WILL MOSTLY
END THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FROM THAT POINT WARM NOSE ALOFT
WILL GO AWAY AND JUST SNOW WILL BE EXPECTED FROM THAT POINT.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 14Z. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY AND UPSLOPE ENHANCED AS THE DAY WEARS ON, WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY SATURATED LOW LEVELS, SO SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS WE LOSE THE SATURATION IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S, AND BE FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER 20S.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY AS SOME
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA, AS WELL AS SOME RIDGING AT BOTH
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 220 AM EST WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SLOW
ANY MELT THAT OCCURS ON THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO UPPER
20S. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN EAST OF THE GREENS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PRETTY STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY LIKELY TO SURPASS THE 40 DEGREE
MARK AREAWIDE, THEREFORE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. JET WILL
PEAK OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MIX TO THEIR POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 PM EST TUESDAY...ON FRIDAY, A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEAST BEFORE GETTING ABSORBED WITHIN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF A MATURE CYCLONE SHIFTING EAST OF JAMES BAY.
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL RACE EASTWARDS IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW
AND 50-55KT 850MB FLOW. THIS WILL USHER IN RAIN AND TEMPERATURES
CREEPING INTO THE 40S DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE WARMTH AND THE
STRENGTH OF THE JET, INCREASED WIND GUSTS UP TO THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. THE MAIN CAVEAT SEEMS TO BE THAT THE LLJ IS WITHIN
THE INVERSION LAYER, AND SO WINDS MAY STRUGGLE TO MIX SOME, BUT
WE'LL MONITOR CHANGES AS WE ARE ABLE TO RESOLVE FEATURES MORE
ACCURATELY GOING FORWARDS. PRECIPITATION EXITS AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND IT MAY CONCLUDE
AS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. NBM (AND BY IMPLICATION LARGER ENSEMBLE
SUITES AS A WHOLE) HAVE TRENDED COOLER FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL
BE GOOD FOR LIMITING THE CONSECUTIVE HOURS ABOVE FREEZING FOR
OUR THAW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY. THE COOLER
AIR THAT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE AREA MEANS WE COULD AGAIN LOOK AT
A MESSY TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN AS THE WARM FRONT BLASTS
NORTH IN 40-50 KT 850MB SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. SUNDAY WILL SPEND
MUCH OF THE DAY ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT CONCLUDING THE WARM UP WITH A ROUND OF
OROGRAPHIC SNOW WITH ANOTHER, MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WITH
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE AREA NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE
THROUGH MVFR AND INTO IFR AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION SPREADS
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. MOST
TERMINALS WILL START AS SNOW, LOWERING VISIBILITY TO 1-2SM AND
REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KMSS AND KRUT, WHICH COULD SEE SNOW MIX WITH
AND/OR CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN 02Z-10Z, WITH VISIBILITY POSSIBLY
IMPROVING TO 3-4SM. AFTER 12Z, WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL TURN
SHOWERY, THEN TRENDING TOWARD DZ/BR BY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE
DECREASES. VISIBILITY LIKELY TO REMAIN 4-6SM THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON EVEN ONCE PRECIPITATION STOPS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
1500-2500 FT AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING, BUT
EXPECT ALL TERMINALS TO LOWER TO IFR BY 10Z AND THEN REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE FZRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SHRA, LIKELY SHSN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN, CHANCE
SHRA.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ026-027-029-030-087.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...HAYNES
AVIATION...HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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