050
FXUS61 KBTV 071156
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
656 AM EST WED JAN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA THIS MORNING, THEN SLIDES EASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OUR WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION,
INCLUDING A WARMER SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CROSSES TO OUR NORTHWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 220 AM EST WEDNESDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LAKE ONTARIO CURRENTLY WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY TODAY. A SECONDARY LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS SECONDARY LOW STRENGTHENS, IT WILL MOSTLY
END THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FROM THAT POINT WARM NOSE ALOFT
WILL GO AWAY AND JUST SNOW WILL BE EXPECTED FROM THAT POINT.
THIS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 14Z. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE
SHOWERY AND UPSLOPE ENHANCED AS THE DAY WEARS ON, WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY SATURATED LOW LEVELS, SO SOME DRIZZLE OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS WE LOSE THE SATURATION IN
THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 30S, AND BE FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S TO UPPER 20S.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END ON THURSDAY AS SOME
DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA, AS WELL AS SOME RIDGING AT BOTH
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AREAWIDE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 220 AM EST WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SLOW
ANY MELT THAT OCCURS ON THURSDAY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO UPPER
20S. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
12Z FRIDAY. NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN EAST OF THE GREENS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PRETTY STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY LIKELY TO SURPASS THE 40 DEGREE
MARK AREAWIDE, THEREFORE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. JET WILL
PEAK OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND WITH ONGOING
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT MIX TO THEIR POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 241 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
* ANOTHER WINTRY MIX IN PARTS OF THE REGION IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
* BLUSTERY, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MODEL AGREEMENT IS FAIRLY GOOD FOR THIS TIME RANGE WITH ANOTHER
DOUBLE- BARRELED TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH A DEEPENING LOW
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO OUR WEST AND A WEAKER LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A
RESULT, A COLD AIR DAMMING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SNOW
IN NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN VERMONT, A LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING
RAIN EVENT IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS, AND PRIMARILY RAIN FAVORED ELSEWHERE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT, AND
TREND SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FAVORED IN
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE GUSTS WERE BOOSTED
ABOVE 30 MPH, AND COULD REALISTICALLY APPROACH 40 MPH BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THE DEGREE AND DURATION OF WARMING ALOFT
SATURDAY NIGHT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS ROBUST AS WITH FRIDAY'S
SYSTEM, BUT AGAIN HIGH ELEVATIONS WILL BECOME WARM AND BREEZY
SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL, MODEST SNOWMELT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT WHERE 90TH PERCENTILE RAINFALL IS RELATIVELY HIGH, NEAR
1". WHILE NOT A MAJOR EVENT, A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING
SOONER/FARTHER WEST WOULD SUPPORT A HEAVIER RAIN SCENARIO AND
MORE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS WITH RAIN OVER SNOW.
A TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN BRIEFLY SETS UP FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES TO OUR NORTH WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
FAVORED. THIS COLDER DAY LOOKS LIKE A BLIP IN AN OTHERWISE LESS COLD
PERIOD, AS MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LOW FOR TUESDAY SUGGESTING HIGH
PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MILDER AGAIN WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR TO
IFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH COMBINATION OF VISIBILITY AND
CEILING RESTRICTIONS. STEADY PRECIPITATION IS WINDING DOWN,
WITH IFR CONDITIONS ENDING EARLIEST IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WHILE SOME MORE SNOW FILLS IN ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. LOCALIZED GAP WINDS AT RUT SHOULD RELAX QUICKLY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH LIGHT WINDS LARGELY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, A SUBTLE
WIND SHIFT WILL GRADUALLY OCCUR WITH WINDS TRENDING
NORTHWESTERLY, SUPPORTING SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR
LOWERING CEILINGS AT SITES LIKE BTV BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z.
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT LOOK GENERALLY STEADY STATE, EXCEPT IMPROVING
AT PBG. SOME BR AND DRIZZLE IS FAVORED AT SITES LIKE EFK AND SLK
AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY FZDZ.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, CHANCE
FZRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, CHANCE
SN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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