772
FXUS61 KBTV 080735
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
235 AM EST THU JAN 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD
OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. BRIEF COOLING ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN LIKELY A WINTRY MIX BY
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARM UP ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING WILL TRANSITION THE REGION BACK TOWARDS
SNOW AND A COOLER BEGINNING TO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 235 AM EST THURSDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST
OF OUR REGION SAVE FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO UPPER 20S EARLY, WHICH WILL
SERVE TO SLOW MELT THAT OCCURS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP AND
CLOUDS START TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA AGAIN. SOME FOG OVER SNOW IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY DEWPOINTS BOTH RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
ON FRIDAY, NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM OUR WEST, EVENTUALLY
PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS
OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRIDAY, AND WILL HAVE A CHANCE
FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS THAT ARE SLOWER TO WARM UP.
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP TO WARM THE AREA ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY BIGGER ISSUES. AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY WILL PEAK IN THE 40S, SOME AREAS EVEN GET
CLOSE TO 50. SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF COMBINED WILL LEAD TO SOME
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 235 AM EST THURSDAY...COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BEHIND DEPARTING COLD FRONT OFF TO OUR EAST.
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED BEFORE ENDING.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S. NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL NOT BE FAR BEHIND WITH
PRECIPITATION LIFTING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATER IN THE
DAY SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE A WARM DAY WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 129 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY POINTS:
* ANOTHER WINTRY MIX IN PARTS OF THE REGION IS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
* BLUSTERY, UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY
HOT ON THE TRACKS OF OUR FRIDAY SYSTEM, ANOTHER MATURE MID
LATITUDE CYCLONE LOOKS POISED TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE DAY SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN
WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40, BUT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN
ON THE COLDER SIDE WITH THE FRIDAY COLD FRONT LINGERING SOUTH OF
THE REGION. CLOUDY AND A LIKELY DREARY DAY LOOKS TO BE THE
THEME FOR SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING DUE TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERING ABOUT THE REGION AND MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE MID 30S. MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES
LATE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES OCCLUDES WITH
STRENGTHENING AMPLIFICATION AMONG THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. AS
THIS PARENT SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES OCCLUDES A SECONDARY
WEAKER SURFACE LOW COULD DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND
ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT, DRAWING COOLER NORTHEAST MARINE FLOW
INTO LOCATIONS EAST OF THE GREENS. THIS WOULD LOCK IN COLDER AIR
AT THE ONSET OF THE SATURDAY NIGHT EVENT WITH A WINTRY MIX
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. COLD AIR DAMMING COUPLED WITH
OVERRIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AT 925-850MB IS A RECIPE FOR
A WINTRY MIX, ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE TRENDS TOWARDS COOLER
SOLUTIONS. SIMILARLY, DRAINAGE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY IN PLACES LIKE MASSENA, NEW YORK, COULD ALSO SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY MIX LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL FALL
OUT OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT TRENDS SUGGEST INCREASINGLY LIKELIHOOD
OF SOME TYPE OF WINTRY MIX AT THE ONSET WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL
RAIN BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL COULD ALSO BE IMPACTFUL
WITH A STRENGTHENING 850MB JET TO 50KTS. SURFACE MIXING AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY COULD MIX 30 TO 40
MPH WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THE
ADIRONDACKS. AN INVERSION AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION COULD HELP
LIMIT THIS MIXING ACROSS VERMONT, REDUCING THE POTENTIAL GUSTS.
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S, DEWPOINTS REACHING ABOVE FREEZING,
AND GUSTY WINDS, SOME MODEST SNOWMELT LOOKS LIKELY. ADDED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE INFLUENCES FROM THE SECONDARY
DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE, HOWEVER, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 0.5" OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE GEFS MODEL. AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO EXIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO
COOL IN THE WIDER VALLEYS, BUT THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD SEE A
RETURN OF COOLER CONDITIONS WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THE WIDER
VALLEYS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, A RELATIVELY TYPICAL WINTER PATTERN
RETURNS WITH SUBTLE TROUGHS AND RIDGES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. NOT ONE DAY LOOKS TO BE ABNORMALLY
COLD OR WARM TO START NEXT WEEK WITH THE FLOW PATTERN NOT
PICKING ANY PARTICULAR DIRECTION TO BE PREVAILING. THESE TROUGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MAINLY LEAD TO SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE MILDER AIR BEHIND BY MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VARIED LOW CEILINGS ARE PRESENT EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEY ARE IN THE 500 TO 800 FOOT RANGE AT MSS, EFK, AND
SLK, BUT RANGE FROM ABOUT 1500 TO 4000 FEET OVER THE OTHER
TERMINALS. BRIEF IFR INTERVALS AT MPV AND RUT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
OTHERWISE OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS OR SO FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STEADY. THERE ARE VERY LIGHT, SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AIRSPACE; THESE ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR AT SITES ALREADY AT IFR SO LITTLE IMPACT IS
EXPECTED. THAT BEING SAID, BTV IS CURRENTLY SEEING A VISIBILITY
REDUCTION TO 2 1/2SM. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SCATTER
OUT WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY, SO SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. GENERALLY SOME CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED
IN THE 18Z TO 21Z TIMEFRAME, LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET GIVEN MOIST AIR AND CONTINUED
LIGHT/CALM WINDS. HAVE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AT
SLK, BUT HAVE INDICATED BR AT EFK AND MPV AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30 KT. DEFINITE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE FZRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE RA, CHANCE SN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SN, CHANCE RA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, CHANCE
SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...DANZIG
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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