300
FXUS61 KBTV 091146
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
646 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY;
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING,
PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW
EVENT WITH SOME WINTRY MIX WILL FOLLOW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, TRANSITIONING INTO A NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOWFALL
SUNDAY NIGHT. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 236 AM EST FRIDAY...
*KEY POINT: A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND WAS EXPANDED INTO THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
TODAY STILL LOOKS WINDY FOR NORTHERN NEW YORK. EARLY THIS
MORNING WINDS HAVE ALREADY GUSTY 40-45 MPH OVER WESTERN NEW YORK
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOWER 50S; THIS IS A
PREVIEW OF THE WAY OUR WEATHER WILL GO TODAY ONCE THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS MIX A BIT BETTER. GUSTY WINDS, ASIDE FROM
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS, WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK
REGION, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ROUTE 11 CORRIDOR, AND IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN, THROUGH MIDDAY. THEY WILL ALSO
BECOME STRONG BY THIS EVENING OVER THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE
WINDOW OF CHANNELED VALLEY FLOW LOOKS RELATIVELY BRIEF, BUT EVEN
WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
ALOFT, STILL NEAR 60 KNOTS AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SEE IMPACTFUL WINDS WITH SOME
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD
TONIGHT WITH A SURGE OF WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT, WITH TERRAIN EFFECTS FAVORING
STRONGEST WINDS BEING OVER WESTERN CLINTON COUNTY AS WINDS SHIFT
WESTERLY. SOME DOWNSLOPING ENHANCEMENTS WILL HELP SEE LOCALLY
35-45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE 10 PM TO 2 AM PERIOD. WITH A MORE WEST/WEST-
NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF WEST- SOUTHWEST DIRECTION, A HIGHER WIND
POTENTIAL COULD BE REALIZED IN VERMONT.
AS FOR RAINFALL TODAY, CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY
TELLS THE STORY WITH WELL-DEFINED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND
SOME DRY SLOTS IN BETWEEN. VERY LIGHT RAIN FALLING OUT OF A MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK THIS MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
TODAY, WITH MEASURABLE RAIN ARRIVING LATE THIS MORNING OR
AFTERNOON AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS SLIDE EASTWARD. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE PERIODICALLY HEAVY ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE/ANOMALOUS PWAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE LOW LEVEL
AIR BECOMES QUITE WARM AND MOIST, ONE REASON WHY WINDS WON'T BE
NOTABLE DURING THIS PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS IS HOW STOUT THE
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL BE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST/MOST
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT WHEN WE MIX BETTER WITH COOLING ALOFT. A SECOND,
NARROWER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL COME THROUGH AFTER A FEW HOUR
BREAK ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHEN MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOWER AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE (DWINDLING
TO 10-30%). WITH THE TREND TOWARDS LOWER ELEVATIONS SEEING
COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY
0.1"-0.5" FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THE BASIN SNOWMELT AND RIVER ICE
MOVEMENT POTENTIAL HAS BECOME EVEN LOWER FOR THIS EVENT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 308 AM EST FRIDAY...
*KEY POINT: WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH SOME WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ON SUNDAY
A DOUBLE-BARRELLED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK
TO BRING US WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
AND TRENDING TOWARDS MORE LOCALIZED/SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY AS THE PRIMARY LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST DRAGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION.
SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO TREND HIGHER WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTRY MIX. THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, EVENT TOTAL SNOWFALL IS
NOW CREEPING INTO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TERRITORY IN MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT WITH THE LATEST FORECAST, BUT SPREAD REMAINS
MODERATELY LARGE. GREATEST POTENTIAL SNOWFALL REMAINS IN
NORTHEASTERN VERMONT, WHERE 90TH PERCENTILE SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOW
4 TO 7 INCHES. THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO SHOW AREAS
OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, PRIMARILY IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE
THE AIR MASS AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT WILL NOT BE AS COLD/DRY,
SO IT WILL BE EASIER FOR A WARM NOSE TO PRODUCE A MELTING LAYER
ALOFT. NOTE THAT SOME MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THIS LAYER IS RELATIVELY HIGH, WITH A DEEP ENOUGH COLD LAYER
BELOW TO FAVOR SLEET. DID NOT MESS WITH THE NBM PROBABILITY OF
WEATHER TYPE GIVEN HOW UNCERTAIN THESE PROFILES ARE, SO AGAIN
ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL QUESTIONABLE EVEN WHERE FREEZING
RAIN IS INDICATED. GENERALLY WITH A TRANSIENT WARM FRONT
SCENARIO WITH BANDS OF FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIPITATION
MOVING NORTHWARD, A SINGLE PRECIPITATION OF ICE OR SLEET WOULD
ALSO NOT LAST TOO LONG SO SIGNIFICANT ICE IS UNLIKELY.
ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AREA TO
OUR WEST, ROBUST CAPE FOR WINTERTIME (MEAN VALUES 15-30 J/KG,
90TH PERCENTILE 50-70 J/KG) WILL PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF BETTER MOISTURE AND TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SEEMS TO FAVOR NORTHERN VERMONT FOR HEAVY
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY VERSUS NORTHERN NEW YORK OR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF VERMONT. INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS SETUP, AND WITH ROAD TEMPERATURES
PROBABLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING, FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 137 AM EST FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAILS BEHIND
DEPARTING SYSTEM. AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES OUR AREA ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY, WILL HAVE SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS AS FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.
AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO FIVE INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WITH THE BIGGER TOTALS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED AS 45 KT 850 MB JET TRAVERSES THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS, BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE WE ARE
LACKING FRONTOGENESIS AS IT'S ALREADY WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY. OUR WEATHER WILL THEN REMAIN QUITE UNSETTLED
HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS ACTIVE
WEATHER FOR OUR PART OF THE REGION. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WITH MAYBE A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
THIS FAR OUT, AND DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE GET
CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LLWS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY
WITH SURFACE GUSTS INCREASING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW UP
TO 55KTS AT 925MB AND 70KTS AT 850MB SUPPORTING STRONG SHEAR
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. SFC GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF
35+ KTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR PBG/SLK WHERE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BE CHANNELED IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. TURBULENCE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A FACTOR ABOVE 850 MB GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
JET EXTENDING ABOVE RIDGE LEVEL. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 15Z TODAY, EXITING TO OUR WEST BY ABOUT
00Z. HAVE ALSO ACCOUNTED FOR SHOWERS AT EACH SITE AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH AND CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER TO
MVFR.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR AND IFR POSSIBLE.
DEFINITE SN, CHANCE RA, CHANCE FZRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHSN, CHANCE
SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ026-087.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NYZ027-029>031.
SYNOPSIS...KUTIKOFF
NEAR TERM...KUTIKOFF
SHORT TERM...KUTIKOFF
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...TEAM BTV
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