895
FXUS61 KBTV 291148
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
648 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 104 AM EST THURSDAY...
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO VERMONT OUTSIDE THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER FORECAST WIND CHILLS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 104 AM EST THURSDAY...
1. PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
2. COLD TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS TONIGHT.
3. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. COASTAL STORM WILL NOT IMPACT OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 104 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITS OVER THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST
CYCLONIC FLOW. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL PIVOT AROUND THIS TROUGH
AND BRING A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THESE
WILL GENERALLY BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL. THE MOST CONSISTENT SNOW IS CURRENTLY ONGOING AND WILL
LAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE, A LOW
SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS, THOUGH THE MOISTURE WILL BE TOO
SHALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. FORECAST SNOW TOTALS
ARE UNDER AN INCH DESPITE A RELATIVELY LONG PERIOD OF SNOW
SHOWERS. FLOW IS QUITE BLOCKED SO SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AS WELL. WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH
WILL CAUSE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON
FRIDAY BUT THEY LOOK LESS WIDESPREAD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ENTERS TODAY AND
DROPS TEMPERATURES FURTHER FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST PLACES,
KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLED IN PLACES AND SOME WIND
AROUND. THESE WINDS, COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES, LOOK
TO DROP WIND CHILLS INTO THE -15 TO -30 DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST
PLACES. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ON HOW LOW
THEY GO. THIS COULD END UP BEING A CASE WHERE EITHER THE
ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AND TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW THEIR CURRENT
LOWS BUT WITHOUT WIND, OR WINDS STAY UP BUT TEMPERATURES ARE
AROUND OR WARMER THEN FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL SPLIT ON
THE AMOUNT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DECOUPLE AND HOW MANY CLOUDS
WILL BE AROUND, BUT OVERALL, COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
SHOULD BE MET FOR MOST PLACES OUTSIDE THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. A
FEW POCKETS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS LOOK TO BE BORDERLINE
WITH EXTREME COLD WARNINGS DUE TO WIND CHILLS BEING NEAR -30 BUT
THEIR GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORM TRACKS ALONG NEW ENGLAND
COAST, BUT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THAT IT WILL NOT HAVE IMPACTS IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK OR VERMONT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S, AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COULD BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND MAYBE
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VARYING CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING
WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING OUR TERMINALS, AS WELL AS
SOME MVFR CEILINGS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THOUGH DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIME AND LOCATION FOR
IMPACTS SINCE THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT INTERMITTENT.
CONDITIONS WILL TREND BACK TOWARDS VFR AFTER 00Z, WITH CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN THE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE SARANAC LAKE AIRPORT WEATHER SENSOR WILL HAVE ITS
TEMPERATURE ASPIRATOR CHANGED TODAY, 1/29/2026. THE TEMPERATURE
SENSOR HAS BEEN REPORTING TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN TOO WARM
FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS.
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR VTZ003-004-006>008-010-011-016>021.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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