278
FXUS61 KBTV 301855
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
155 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 154 PM EST FRIDAY...
DUE TO A DECREASE IN EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL
FOR LINGERING LIGHT WINDS, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED
UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION AND
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 154 PM EST FRIDAY...
1. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS
AND SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT. COLD, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
2. SEASONALLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 154 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR LOCKED
IN AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN A DRY, COLD NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN VERMONT VALLEYS. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 15 TO 30 BELOW ZERO
ARE STILL BEING REPORTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.
ADIRONDACKS: THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO AGAIN STAY COUPLED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACK REGION, HOWEVER,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE -15 TO 0 F RANGE
WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE TYPICAL SPOTS. WIND CHILLS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE BITTER RIGHT AFTER THE SUN GOES DOWN THIS
EVENING AND BEFORE WINDS DECREASE, BUT COLDEST WIND CHILLS WILL
ARRIVE WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL TO THEIR LOWEST AROUND 3-8 AM SATURDAY
MORNING.
SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT: THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY CURRENTLY HAS
WIND CHILLS AROUND 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO, BUT WE ANTICIPATE THOSE TO
DECREASE RAPIDLY AS TEMPERATURES FALL AFTER THE SUN SETS AND ANY
LINGERING HEAT AT THE SURFACE RADIATES OFF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
COLD AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FLOW INTO THE VALLEY AND POOL THERE
TONIGHT, DROPPING AMBIENT TEMPERATURES TO 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO BY
AROUND 3-8 AM SATURDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES AT THIS LEVEL,
WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW WILL NOT BE DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE
WITH EVEN SLIGHT DRAINAGE WINDS THROUGH 9 AM SATURDAY.
WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THIS WEEKEND, HIGH
PRESSURE DOES START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MIDWEST, AND SURFACE AIR REMAINS DRY, SO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS, 850MB LEVEL
TEMPERATURES START TO INCREASE FROM AROUND -15 TO -17 C SATURDAY
BECOMING -9 TO -11 C SUNDAY. FURTHERMORE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES
APPEAR TO MAKE A MEAGER ATTEMPT AT INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY BECOMING MID TEENS TO
LOWER 20S SUNDAY. WHILE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER RECENT CONDITIONS, THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 15-20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE AVERAGES
FOR LATE JANUARY INTO EARLY FEBRUARY. THIS WILL BE IN PART DUE TO
NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED TO
DESCEND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE CURRENT SPELL OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A GOOD BIT
WARMER THAN THOSE THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. GIVEN THAT WE
WILL BE SEEING SEVERAL BURSTS OF ARCTIC AIR, THERE WILL BE LIMITED
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO US WHICH SHOULD KEEP US MOSTLY DRY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EACH DAY. A WEAK FILAMENT OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY COULD BRING JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS BUT WON'T AMOUNT TO MUCH OR BE WIDESPREAD.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS
REGIONAL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS NOW
PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE W/NW
AT 12 TO 20 KNOTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ABATE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
KEFK THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS TO THE
FLIGHT CATEGORY THERE. CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE 4-8 KFT RANGE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER NORTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR VTZ010-020-
021.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ029>031-
034.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STORM
DISCUSSION...STORM/CLAY
AVIATION...CLAY
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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