553
FXUS61 KBTV 311146
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
646 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 316 AM EST SATURDAY...
DUE TO CLOUDS PREVENTING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE NO LONGER FORECAST TO REACH -20
DEGREES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE, THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 116 AM EST SATURDAY...
1. COLD TEMPERATURES AND A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
2. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 116 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT
STORM SYSTEMS. THE NOR'EASTER WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST, SO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE REGION FROM IT. ITS ONLY
EFFECTS LOOK TO BE INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY AND A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
TYPICAL HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. ANY LOW
CLOUDS WILL CAUSE SATURATION IN THE DGZ SINCE IT IS COLD ENOUGH
TO BE RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE, SO ANY TIMES THESE CLOUDS ARE
AROUND, FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO A RELATIVELY
STATIONARY PATTERN, THE AIR WAS ABLE TO WRAP AROUND OFF THE
LABRADOR SEA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND DOWN INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE MARINE MOISTURE IS THE CULPRIT
FOR THE CLOUDS, AND IT IS EASILY TRACED BACK ON SATELLITE. THIS
FLOW IS ALSO CAUSING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH, SO
THIS MOISTURE AND SLIGHT WARMING IS HELPING ENHANCE THE CLOUDS,
AND THEY ARE STUCK BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, SO THEY LOOK TO
STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND FOR MANY AREAS. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE, THERE WILL BE
A WARMING TREND, AND AS THINGS STAND, COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE REACHED AGAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: PRETTY QUIET WEATHER WEEK LIES AHEAD OF US FOR
NEXT WEEK. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE AREA WILL MEAN SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THIS FAR OUT THERE HAS
NOT BEEN A LOT OF CONTINUITY AT ALL.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY A MIX OF BKN/OVC VFR/MVFR CEILINGS
WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MOUNTAIN FLURRIES, NO PRECIPITATION OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...NEILES/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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