779
FXUS61 KBTV 312339
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
639 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 1243 PM EST SATURDAY...
RELATIVELY MILD LAKE CHAMPLAIN TEMPERATURES AGAINST COLD AIR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A LOW
LEVEL LAKE CLOUD TO FORM. THIS LAKE CLOUD COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WILL BE VERY
MINOR.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 1243 PM EST SATURDAY...
1. COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THESE COULD LEAD TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF
VISIBILITY AND VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE LAKE.
2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, WITH A CHANCE OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 1243 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND SURFACE LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES. WE ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO FALL AGAIN WHEN LIGHT FADES
THIS EVENING WITH LOWS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS AND NEGATIVE TEENS, ONCE AGAIN 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE
AVERAGES FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZES OUT OF THE
NORTH TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING, SO WIND CHILLS WON'T BE TOO MUCH LOWER
THAN ACTUAL TEMPERATURES FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT,
OUTSIDE OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
RELATIVELY MILD LAKE CHAMPLAIN TEMPERATURES AGAINST THESE COLD AIR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A LOW
LEVEL LAKE CLOUD TO FORM. THIS LAKE CLOUD COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS A DUSTING TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH FROM AROUND SHELBURNE TO BURTON ISLAND, INCLUDING
BURLINGTON AND MALLETS BAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL DOESN'T LOOK
TO REACH MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN THAT AS THE STEERING WIND IS OUT
OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THAT BEING SAID, SLIGHT WIND FLUCTUATIONS
COULD DRAW THE LAKE CLOUD MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, AND SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATIONS COULD LENGTHEN OR SHORTEN THE PERIOD IN WHICH THE LAKE
FLURRIES/SHOWERS OCCUR. FAIRLY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP
INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATIONS AND SHOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINIMAL.
CLOUDS AND MARINE MOISTURE LOOK TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH SLOWLY, GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES, THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT
ADDITIONAL FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURE
INCREASES WILL BE HINDERED SUNDAY BY A NOR'EASTER OUT IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN AS IT ROTATES CYCLONICALLY OUT AT SEA AND DRAWS
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS WON'T REACH ABOVE
THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SUNDAY, WITH CHANNELED NORTHERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY GUSTING AS HIGH AS 15-20
KNOTS. THEN, HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20S AS THE
NOR'EASTER MOVES FARTHER AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
LOWS WILL ALSO MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE -5 TO 5 F RANGE WITH NO
CONCERNS FOR FUTURE COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS THROUGH MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE QUIET.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE HIGHS AREN'T FORECAST TO REACH 30
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA DURING THE LONG TERM. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE GREENS. THE MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW OUR NEXT EVENT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WITH THE
CANADIAN, EURO, AND AMERICAN MODELS (ALONG WITH THEIR AI VERSIONS)
SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE TIME FRAME. THE CONSISTENCY IS
ENOUGH FOR US TO PUT IN 50 POPS AND CHANCE TO LIKELY SNOW FOR THE
AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES IS STILL
RATHER LARGE.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...THE AVIATION CHALLENGE IS AREAL COVERAGE OF
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL INTERVALS OF IFR VIS/CIGS AT SEVERAL SITES.
CURRENT GOES-19 IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MVFR CIGS
ROTATING ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND VT WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY MVFR
CIGS AT EFK/SLK AND MSS, WHILE A BROKEN 3500 DECK HAS DEVELOPED
AT PBG AND BTV WITH VFR ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE OBS LAST NIGHT AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS TONIGHT, EXPECT
LOWERING CIGS IN THE MVFR/IFR RANGE. SOME INTERVALS OF 2-4SM IN
BR/HZ LIKELY AT MPV/SLK AND EFK WITH LESS PROBABILITY OF IFR AT
BTV/MSS AND RUT, BUT ITS A NON ZERO THREAT. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
REDUCED VIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE BETWEEN 14-16Z ON SUNDAY WITH
DEVELOPING NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STORM
DISCUSSION...LANGBAUER/STORM
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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