726
FXUS61 KBTV 011121
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
621 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 130 AM EST SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 130 AM EST SUNDAY...
1. COLD TEMPERATURES AND A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
2. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE LATE WEEK AS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES OUR AREA.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 130 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT THERE WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEMS. THE NOR'EASTER WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY.
ITS ONLY EFFECTS WILL BE INCREASED NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE TYPICAL HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS INTO THIS MORNING, BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW THINNER
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD EXIT EARLIER
IN THE DAY. ANY LOW CLOUDS WILL CAUSE SATURATION IN THE DGZ SINCE IT
IS COLD ENOUGH TO BE RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE, SO ANY TIMES THESE
CLOUDS ARE AROUND, FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO A RELATIVELY
STATIONARY PATTERN, THE AIR WAS ABLE TO WRAP AROUND OFF THE LABRADOR
SEA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND DOWN INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. THE MARINE MOISTURE IS THE CULPRIT FOR THE CLOUDS,
AND IT IS EASILY TRACED BACK ON SATELLITE. THIS FLOW IS ALSO CAUSING
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH, SO THIS MOISTURE AND SLIGHT
WARMING IS HELPING ENHANCE THE CLOUDS, AND THEY ARE STUCK BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OFF
LAKE CHAMPLAIN INTO SOUTHERN CHITTENDEN AND NORTHERN ADDISON
COUNTIES AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IT IS
ANOTHER INDICATOR THAT A DECENT PART OF THE BROAD LAKE IS STILL AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT OPEN, THOUGH THEY ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN THEY ARE
EARLIER IN THE SEASON WITH A LOT MORE LAKE TO WORK WITH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER OUR REGION AND WE WILL
HAVE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE AROUND BASE OF THE
TROUGH. WILL HAVE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN PLACE AS WELL. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EXPECT ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES OUR AREA. THIS SNOWFALL
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD, BUT IT'S TOO FAR OUT TO TALK ABOUT TOTALS
JUST YET, BUT CLIPPERS GENERALLY BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL. MODELS ARE
LIKELY TO SHIFT THE TIMING BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND ALSO.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...THE AVIATION CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
AREAL COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL INTERVALS OF IFR VIS/CIGS
AT SEVERAL SITES. CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT BTV, EFK,
MSS AND SLK MAINLY DUE TO CEILINGS, BUT ALSO HAVE LIGHT SNOW
OBSERVED AT EFK AND BTV. SOME INTERVALS OF 2-4SM IN BR/HZ LIKELY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LESS PROBABILITY OF IFR, BUT ITS A NON
ZERO THREAT. ANY LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VIS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE BETWEEN 14-16Z TODAY WITH DEVELOPING NORTHWEST WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS AND INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...NEILES/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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