937
FXUS61 KBTV 020613
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
113 AM EST MON FEB 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 111 AM EST MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 111 AM EST MONDAY...
1. SEASONABLY COLD STRETCH THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
2. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEST CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE LATE WEEK AS
A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES OUR AREA. VERY COLD CONDITIONS RETURN TO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 111 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE A WEAK CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. TODAY WILL BE A GREAT DAY TO GET OUTSIDE AND DO
WINTERTIME ACTIVITIES DUE TO HIGHS IN THE 20S, RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LOOKS TO
TRANSITION INTO A MOSTLY ISOTHERMAL PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS, SO
THE MOUNTAINS WON'T BE MUCH COLDER THAN THE VALLEYS. THIS SETS UP A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT TONIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BELOW ZERO FOR MOST PLACES, WITH THE COLDER HOLLOWS DROPPING INTO
THE NEGATIVE TEENS. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE NIGHT
BUT THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ENTER NORTHERN NEW YORK TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE REACHING
VERMONT TUESDAY NIGHT. THEY LOOK TO LINGER ACROSS THE TYPICAL HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND UPSLOPE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, VERY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST AREAS ONLY SEEING A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO AROUND AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A
BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A
CLIPPER TYPE LOW WHICH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA. BEING IN THE LONGER RANGE, STILL A LOT OF MODEL TO MODEL AND
ALSO RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES. LOOKS LIKE SOME MUCH COLDER AIR
WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING COLD HEADLINES
ONCE AGAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WORK OUT THE FINER
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL CURRENTLY AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION.
CLEAR SKIES AND WEAKENING WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY
BELOW THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED PATCHY FREEZING FOG/HZ AND LOW CIGS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT SLK/MPV AND EFK WITH LESS POTENTIAL
AT BTV/MSS TOWARD SUNRISE ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE, ANY LINGERING LOW
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY 15Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
NAVIGATING THE BROAD WATERS OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. PLEASE CONTACT US
IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE
RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...NEILES/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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