699
FXUS61 KBTV 031137
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
637 AM EST TUE FEB 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 114 AM EST TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH LATE WEEK
BRINGING SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW, GUSTY WINDS, AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES OVER THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 114 AM EST TUESDAY...
1. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
2. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING OVER THE REGION.
3. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE'LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
DANGEROUS COLD NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 114 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL APPROACH OUR AREA TODAY, CROSSING OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. ONLY EXPECTING VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH THESE FEATURES, AND
BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSES THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WITH A SIMILAR OUTCOME OF JUST SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. DIRECTLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE SOUTHERN
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY COULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT OR BETTER
ORGANIZATION OF THE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS WITH EACH
OF THESE FEATURES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S,
AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH SCOOT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS, BUT EXPECT THEY'LL BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST. WHILE THIS WILL BE A STRONG FRONT WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING, INSTABILITY WILL
BE LACKING GIVEN THE POOR TIMING (IE OVERNIGHT RATHER THAN
DURING THE DAY). SO WHILE PERHAPS NOT TRUE SQUALLS, DO EXPECT
THERE COULD BE HEAVIER EMBEDDED SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS, SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE
HIGH, RESULTING IN A FAIRLY LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOW. WHILE STILL A
LITTLE EARLY TO KNOW EXACT AMOUNTS, GENERAL THINKING IS MOST
AREAS WOULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES AT MOST, WITH PERHAPS HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES AS WINDS WILL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST/NORTHWEST, FAVORING THE USUAL UPSLOPE
SECTIONS. THE INCOMING AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
QUITE DRY (PWATS LESS THAN 0.1 INCH), SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO
COME TO A QUICK END ON SATURDAY, LINGERING LONGEST IN THE
NORTHERN GREENS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
FALL QUITE SHARPLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES ON BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS. THE 01Z NBM SHOWS
60-100% CHANCES OF HIGHS AREAWIDE REMAINING LESS THAN 10F BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH 40- 80% PROBABILITIES THAT HIGHS DON'T
EVEN REACH 0F ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE,
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT HAVE 60-100%
CHANCE OF DROPPING BELOW -10F, WITH PORTIONS OF THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS HAVING A 30-55% CHANCE OF
SEEING LOWS BELOW -20F. GIVEN THAT 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO BE -28C TO -31C, THESE OVERNIGHT LOWS SEEM
REASONABLE. THE COLDEST CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT ANTICIPATE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE MIXING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS WELL, SO WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE
BREEZY SIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE VERY COLD AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO DAYTIME WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO
-25F SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH OVERNIGHTS -20F TO - 35F.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR
ANYONE OUTDOORS, ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE NOT DRESSED FOR THE
CONDITIONS. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON FUTURE FORECASTS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR ANY FUTURE
COLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...OTHER THAN A FEW EXCEPTIONS, VFR
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A SHALLOW
THERMAL INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN LIFR CEILINGS AT KSLK, WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 14Z, THEN IMPROVING TO MVFR THEREAFTER.
LIKEWISE, KMSS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW
HOURS BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT BACK TO VFR AFTER 15Z. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY, WITH
CEILINGS EVENTUALLY BECOMING MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS FROM WEST TO
EAST. SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KMSS/KSLK WITH VISIBILITY TO 3-5SM AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, MVFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS BY 03Z, AND LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST 00Z-12Z WED, THOUGH
LACK OF COVERAGE/INTENSITY WARRANTS VCSH FOR ALL EXCEPT KEFK. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE TERRAIN- DRIVEN THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING, BECOMING S/SW 4-8 KT AFTER 15Z TUE, BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE.
LIKELY SHSN.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...HASTINGS
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