218
FXUS61 KBTV 050615
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 111 AM EST THURSDAY...
AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH
COUNTRY, WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVING
ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 111 AM EST THURSDAY...
1. MAINLY QUIET WEATHER NEXT 36 HOURS. THEN, DRY/LIGHT SNOWFALL
EXPECTED WITH ARCTIC FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
2. DANGEROUS COLD WITH WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ZERO
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
3. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 111 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL BRING RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A
COUPLE OF NOTES: (1) MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SOME VERY
LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN NY AND VT THIS MORNING. AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY
WITH PW VALUES ONLY 0.10-0.15", HOWEVER A COATING TO AN INCH OF DRY
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS. (2) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE LAST BIT OF OPEN WATER TO FREEZE ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN, SO WE COULD BE LOOKING AT COMPLETE ICE COVERAGE BY
FRIDAY AM. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST COMPLETE FREEZING OF LAKE
CHAMPLAIN SINCE MARCH 8TH, 2019.
APPROACHING ARCTIC BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXCEPTIONALLY SHARP IN
DETERMINISTIC NWP GUIDANCE (SEE NEXT KEY MESSAGE CONCERNING FRIGID
TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS WITH THIS BNDRY). DESPITE LACK
OF INSTABILITY, APPEARS FRONTOGENESIS AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS QUITE STRONG, AND WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. BEST FRONTAL FORCING IS
GENERALLY MIDNIGHT TO 7AM SATURDAY. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT
SLRS NEAR 20:1, SO EXPECTING A LIGHT/FLUFFY 1-2" SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH HIGHER SUMMITS AMOUNTS LOCALLY 2-4". THE
SNOWFALL WON'T BE PARTICULARLY IMPACTFUL BECAUSE OF THE DRY
CHARACTER, BUT REDUCED VSBY AND SOME SLICK SPOTS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY WILL PRESENT A MINOR CONCERN FOR TRAVELERS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. MAY ALSO SEE SOME BLOWING SNOW AS NW WINDS PICK
UP WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 4AM IN THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND AROUND 7AM IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BASED ON
CURRENT INDICATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. NORTHERN NY WILL SEE THE DRASTIC COOLING FIRST, FALLING
FROM THE TEENS AROUND MIDNIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO ARRIVE IN
THOSE AREAS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, BUT ANTICIPATE
SINGLE DIGITS AREAWIDE BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY. BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH THE
COLD AMBIENT TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO ABATE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT; WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE 10
TO 20 BELOW ZERO, WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY, ALLOWING WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WHILE IT WILL STILL BE VERY COLD (HIGHS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS), WIND CHILLS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND, AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR NORTHERN NY FOR SATURDAY, SATURDAY NIGHT, THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR AREAS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD, THE WATCH
STARTS LATER SATURDAY DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE COLDEST
AIR, BUT IT ALSO RUNS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL VT HAVE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THE WATCH BEING UPGRADED TO A WARNING (DUE TO
WIND CHILLS OF -30F OR COLDER), WITH AN UPGRADE TO ADVISORIES
ELSEWHERE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD AND
HEADLINES WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED. HOWEVER, DON'T FOCUS ON
ADVISORY VS WARNING OVERLY MUCH; IT'S GOING TO BE DANGEROUSLY COLD,
REGARDLESS. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
FUTURE FORECASTS. IF OUTDOOR PLANS CAN'T BE DELAYED OR ALTERED,
PLEASE MAKE SURE TO DRESS FOR VERY COLD CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVERHEAD LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING EAST ON MONDAY. AS SUCH WINDS WILL SLACKEN, BUT GIVING
WAY TO BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT THERE COULD BE LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD LIMIT COOLING
POTENTIAL. STILL, OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 15 BELOW
ZERO AREAWIDE, AND CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING -20F.
ADDITIONAL COLD HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LOTS OF DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST
MODELS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO IMPROVE A
LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, APPROACHING NORMAL BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE HARDER TO PIN DOWN. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME
CONSENSUS THAT RIDGING WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
SOLUTIONS DIFFER THEREAFTER, SPECIFICALLY HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN AND HOW AMPLIFIED AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES.
THE CMC HOLDS THE RIDGE MORE FIRMLY THROUGH MID WEEK, WHILE THE
GFS/ECMWF ARE FASTER, BRINGING A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW
THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AND WHAT PROCESSES WILL DRIVE THIS
PRECIPITATION. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE NBM FROM MONDAY ONWARD, WITH
SLOWLY INCREASING POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MVFR/VFR TO DOMINATE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH LOCAL IFR IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 15Z THIS
MORNING. KEFK/KSLK HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING VISIBILITY
REDUCED TO 2-3SM IN SNOW, WITH LESSER CHANCES OF 3-5SM AT KBTV/KMPV.
EITHER WAY, EXPECT CEILINGS TO GENERALLY REMAIN 1500-2500 FT IN ANY
SNOW. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS, A THIN LOW CLOUD DECK WILL
CONTINUE TO HOVER 1500-3500 FT THROUGH 00Z FRI, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF VFR AT KBTV/KPBG/KRUT. ALL TERMINALS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
THEREAFTER AS LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL TREND TOWARD W/NW 5-8 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN
SUBSIDING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF
YOU OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ028-035.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BANACOS
DISCUSSION...BANACOS/HASTINGS
AVIATION...HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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