642
FXUS61 KBTV 222343
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
643 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 129 PM EST SUNDAY...
SNOWFALL AMOUNT GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NOR'EASTER, INCREASING SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND DECREASING THEM SLIGHTLY IN WINDSOR
COUNTY. OVERALL TOTALS IN THESE COUNTIES WILL BE BETWEEN 3 AND 7
INCHES. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY NIGHT HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN
SOME LOCATIONS AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES DURING THAT PERIOD
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 129 PM EST SUNDAY...
1. A STRONG NOR'EASTER DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BRING SNOWFALL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY, WITH THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL VERMONT.
2. COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING STRONG NORTHWEST GUSTS, WIND
CHILLS OF -5 TO -15 ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
3. MOISTURE-STARVED LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
4. INLAND RUNNER TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 129 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
ROTATING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE U.S. ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND VERMONT, ALL IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT WITH UPPER RIDGING
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STATIONED OVER
QUEBEC. THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BECOME
THE HIGHLY-ANTICIPATED STRONG NOR'EASTER BY THE END OF THE DAY, ITS
CENTER EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH A FAIRLY SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT
FORECAST, AS IS TYPICAL WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
3 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT, WITH 1 TO 3 ACROSS
CENTRAL VERMONT, WHILE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND MOST OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK WILL MISS OUT. AS OF NOW, THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL LOOKS TO
FALL MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOWFALL, GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH GUSTS
IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT, PEAKING AROUND THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS COULD LEAD
TO BLOWING SNOW, MAKING FOR EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY IN ANY MOUNTAIN PASSES, SO BE
SURE BE ALERT AND USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING THROUGH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT ON MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AS THE HIGHLY-ANTICIPATED STRONG NOR'EASTER PULLS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY NIGHT, ISOBARS
WILL REMAIN TIGHTLY PACKED AGAINST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM JAMES BAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SINK TOWARDS 0 F ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS. WITH THESE TWO ELEMENTS COMBINED, CONDITIONS WILL FEEL
MORE LIKE -5 TO -15 F ACROSS THE REGION. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
REST OF VERMONT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER, AS THE CORE OF
COLDEST AIR DOESN'T ARRIVE IN VERMONT UNTIL MIDDAY AND WILL STRUGGLE
TO MAKE IT PAST THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CREEP INTO THE
TEENS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND FAR NORTHERN VERMONT, WHILE THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND UPPER VALLEY WARM INTO THE
20S. A FEW LINGERING UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EVEN TUESDAY AS AN INCOMING SHORTWAVE GETS ABSORBED WITHIN
DEEP, STACKED LOW PRESSURE AND ARCTIC MARITIME MOISTURE WRAPS
AROUND. THE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY NIGHT REMAINS
TRICKY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING ARRIVE AND
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. WE MAY RADIATE INITIALLY, BUT CLOUD
COVER FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE APPROACHING, WHICH COULD
CAP THINGS OFF EARLY. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ABOUT -5 TO 10 F, BUT
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AROUND MIDWEEK
AS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STRETCHES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, THEN
NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THE SYSTEM LACKS NOTABLE MOISTURE,
BUT HAS ADEQUATE FORCING, NEGATIVE TILT, AND OPTIMAL POSITIONING OF
A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK TO BRING US SOME MORE SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY WARM BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 4: DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE STARTING TO KEY IN
ON AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OUT OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AT THIS TIME IS PREDOMINANTLY SNOW, BUT LOWS THAT TRACK THROUGH THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INHERENTLY HAVE WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THEM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MIX FROM SNOW TO RAIN AS
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FRIDAY MORNING. THE NBM IS CURRENTLY
SHOWING BETWEEN 30-50% CHANCE OF SNOWFALL EXCEEDING 4 INCHES LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN PORTION OF THE EVEN
OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH COULD LESSEN POTENTIAL
IMPACTS FROM THE HEAVIER WET SNOW THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY BRING. IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOW, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEYS AS WINDS
CHANNEL UP THE VALLEY. SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS IT APPEARS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LAG ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND PLENTY OF COLD AIR MOVING BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM AMPLIFIED TO ZONAL OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW QUICK SNOW SHOWERS BUT NO
BIG SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...OTHER THAN LOCAL MVFR IN FLURRIES FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS, TAF PERIOD WILL SEE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 09Z. CONDITIONS START TO DETERIORATE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THEREAFTER, PARTICULARLY AT KRUT WHERE WIDESPREAD
SNOW WILL LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR/LIFR WITH VISIBILITIES 1-2SM
AND CEILINGS 2500-3500 FT. KMPV WILL ALSO SEE LOWERED
VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AFTER 10Z, THOUGH GENERALLY 2-3SM. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR NORTH SNOW SPREADS THEREAFTER;
KBTV MAY WELL SEE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AFTER 12Z, BUT
CERTAINTY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WITH
CEILINGS AOA 3500 FT. SNOW WILL TAPER TO AN END AFTER 20Z. THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO BELOW 2500 FT
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 20Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH,
BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAF SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN AND TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER 10Z MONDAY.
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE, BUT SOME
LOCATIONS COULD APPROACH 30 KT AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY DUE TO FUNNELING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SN.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
EQUIPMENT
THE KMPV ASOS HAS SUFFERED A COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE. THE ISSUE
HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE. TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE,
BUT AMENDMENTS TO THOSE FORECASTS WILL BE SUSPENDED.
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VTZ011-019>021.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STORM
DISCUSSION...STORM/CLAY
AVIATION...HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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