674
FXUS61 KBTV 232331
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
631 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 129 PM EST MONDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN AND
ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS TONIGHT WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 129 PM EST MONDAY...
1. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
2. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
3. POTENTIAL FOR A WARM, SPRING DAY ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
THE RETURN MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 129 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NOR'EASTER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN VERMONT THROUGH 4-5 PM BEFORE THE SNOW EXITS TO THE EAST. A
BRIEF IN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
BEFORE A COMBINATION OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, STEEPENING
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND CONVERGENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HELP TO
MAXIMIZE SNOWFALL PROCESSES ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIMITED. THIS SHOULD YIELD UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN AND ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AWAY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
NOR'EASTER IS EXPECTED TO DROP TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS
VERMONT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO ABATE THIS EVENING BUT WILL STILL
REMAIN IN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE WHICH SHOULD YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES OF
-10 TO -20 ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND BETWEEN 0 AND -10 ACROSS
VERMONT. NO HEADLINES ARE POSTED FOR WIND CHILLS AS VALUES WILL
LIKELY STAY JUST ABOVE CRITERIA OR MAY ONLY BE REACHED FOR AN HOUR AT
MOST. STILL, A COLD TUESDAY MORNING IS ON TAP SO BE SURE TO PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.
TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO BUILD IN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS THE
TIMING OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL HAVE A DRASTIC IMPACT ON THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST REFLECTS A LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
HIGH CLOUDS WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER, SHOULD CLOUDS ARRIVE FASTER,
LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN NEW YORK ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL
BRING 1-3" OF SNOWFALL TO THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW DECENT
OMEGA WITHIN THE DGZ SO IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT AMOUNTS DO LOOK TO BE SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL AT THIS
TIME. A 30-35 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET COULD CUT
INTO THE SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IN ADDITION TO
BRINGING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE IMPRESSIVE, IT'S LIKELY TO IMPACT BOTH THE
MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTES.
KEY MESSAGE 3: MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS A NON-EVENT
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING. COULD SEE A FEW HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXIT OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT THE
REGION WILL LARGELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF JAMES BAY WILL DEVELOP STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER OUR REGION SATURDAY ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 40S. THIS WILL BE A NICE TASTE OF SPRING,
THOUGH BRIEF AS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THE RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR
FOR THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NNW AFTER A WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH CEILINGS LOWERING IN RESPONSE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. FLOW WILL BE BLOCKED SO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBTV AND KRUT AS WELL, WITH LOWER
CHANCES AT KMPV. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSLK,
GENERALLY 02Z THROUGH 08Z, WITH VISIBILITY AROUND 3SM. IFR CAN'T
BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT. WINDS REMAIN N/NW 5-10
KT OVERNIGHT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT, ABATING GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR AND IFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY
SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SN.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
EQUIPMENT
THE KMPV ASOS HAS SUFFERED A COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE. THE ISSUE
HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE. TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE,
BUT AMENDMENTS TO THOSE FORECASTS WILL BE SUSPENDED.
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...CLAY
DISCUSSION...LAHIFF/CLAY
AVIATION...HASTINGS
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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