326
FXUS61 KBTV 250012
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
712 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 144 PM EST TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW SQUALLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 144 PM EST TUESDAY...
1. SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON WEDNESDAY, FIRST WITH
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING, THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2. BRIEF WARM UP SATURDAY, COLD START TO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 144 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR REGION TONIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROVIDING FORCING FOR WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOWFALL. ONSET OF SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOVING GENERALLY WEST
TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND THEN VERMONT. WITH THIS
SNOWFALL, WE'RE EXPECTING SLIPPERY TRAVEL AND LOW VISIBILITIES FOR
THE MORNING COMMUTE. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH UP TO 0.50-0.75
INCHES PER HOUR, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AROUND 5 AM
THROUGH 10 AM. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION, ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY, MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WITH NEGATIVE 500MB
LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES REACHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE AREA
ALSO SITS NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET DURING THIS PERIOD, PLACING
NORTHERN NEW YORK/VERMONT IN THE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TILT NEGATIVELY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON, AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE INDICATING SURFACE
CAPE VALUES 30 TO 70 J/KG DURING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. IN THE MID TO LOW LEVELS, THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. STEEP LAPSE
RATES REACH UP TO THE 750MB LEVEL ON SEVERAL SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING A
WELL-SATURATED SNOW GROWTH ZONE, SUGGESTING SNOW SQUALLS COULD BE
EMBEDDED IN CLUSTERS OF SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A LINEAR ORGANIZATION
OF SQUALL-LIKE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING WHILE ROAD TEMPERATURES, GIVEN LATE FEBRUARY SOLAR ANGLE,
RISE ABOVE FREEZING AHEAD OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS. THEREFORE, SOME
SNOW SQUALLS COULD HAVE A FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL IN ADDITION TO
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VISIBILITY. MOTORISTS PLANNING TRAVEL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AND PREPARE FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS IF THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STRONG CLIPPER PASSES BY WELL TO THE NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT WARM AIR ADVECTION. ITS
PRESSURE LOOKS TO DROP CLOSE TO 980 MB, CAUSING A SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET TO PASS OVERHEAD. GUSTY CHANNELED FLOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S FOR MOST PLACES, WITH A RUN AT 50 POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE AMOUNT OF WARMING LOOKS TO DEPEND ON THE
TIMING AND MAKE UP OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THE BACKSIDE. AN
EARLIER PASSAGE WOULD PREVENT THE FULL EFFECTS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AND SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LIKE THE GFS AND
AND ABOUT HALF THE GEFS MEMBERS HAVE WOULD CUT BACK ON TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS. DEW POINTS WILL BE LOW REGARDLESS, SO
MELTING WOULD BE LIMITED AND ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD CAUSE NOTABLE
WET-BULBING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, IT WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER AGAIN
FOR A COUPLE DAYS WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS LOOKING TO
BE AROUND AND BELOW ZERO.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT EXCEPT AT SLK. CEILINGS THERE ARE CURRENTLY MVFR AND ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. A FAST MOVING ROUND OF
SNOW WILL PASS THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. IT WILL LAST A COUPLE HOURS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH AND SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITY TO ALL
TERMINALS. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MSS AT AROUND 09Z AND LEAVE
EFK AT AROUND 16Z. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND WHEN THE
SNOW ARRIVES AND END BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND TERRAIN DRIVEN TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE AT
BTV AND PBG WHERE GUSTS IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
EQUIPMENT
THE KMPV ASOS HAS SUFFERED A COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE. THE ISSUE
HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE. TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE,
BUT AMENDMENTS TO THOSE FORECASTS WILL BE SUSPENDED.
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STORM
DISCUSSION...STORM/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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