092
FXUS61 KBTV 071209
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 700 AM EST SATURDAY...
HAVE ALLOWED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 227 AM EST SATURDAY...
1. PATCHY FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE INTO THE MORNING.
2. WARM, WINDY AND SHOWERY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
3. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RIVER ICE MOVEMENT/BREAKUP AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ICE JAMS REMAINS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
4. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 227 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE GREENS AND IN
SOUTHERN ESSEX COUNTY NY HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING. INCREASING
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CAUSE AREAS OF
MIST AND DRIZZLE IN THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE
ABOVE FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS BUT IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL MID
MORNING FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IN THE COLDEST PLACES EAST OF THE GREENS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE NIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING, AND THESE WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN IN THOSE
AREAS. HOWEVER, THOSE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY RESTRICTED TO CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS (ORANGE COUNTY AND NORTH) WHERE UP TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS EXPECTED. THE REST OF THE AREAS BELOW
FREEZING SHOULD ONLY SEE UP TO A LIGHT GLAZE FROM THE FREEZING MIST
AND DRIZZLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
CANADA DURING THE DAY TODAY, AS A BERMUDA TYPE HIGH REMAINS
ESTABLISHED OFF THE COAST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR STRONG WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. INCREASING WINDS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
FOG FROM FORMING, BUT WITH THE WARM MOIST AIR OVER EXTENSIVE
SNOWPACK IT IS STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE PROTECTED HOLLOWS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO EVENTUALLY REACH THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS TODAY,
WITH A RUN AT 60 POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK. WHILE A
ROUND OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING, MOST
OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY. THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT, BRINGING A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK. FROM A
HYDRO PERSPECTIVE, THE AMOUNT OF RAIN SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY HIGH. THE
LINE SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST MOVING AND MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE
DRY. HOWEVER, COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
REACHING THE 40S, SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR, THOUGH THE
FASTEST RATES WILL BE PRETTY SHORT LIVED. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR ON SATURDAY, WITH LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY DUE TO CHANNELING AND IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO ENHANCE SNOWMELT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ENOUGH RAIN OR RIVER ICE MELT
TO CAUSE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING OR ICE BREAKUP TODAY, THOUGH
VERY LOCALIZED ICE MOVEMENT COULD OCCUR. THE SUSTAINED WARM WEATHER
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH THANKFULLY WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION, MAY CAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD ICE BREAKUP TO START TO
OCCUR, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ICE JAMS. WHILE
LOCALIZED FIELD FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO A LACK OF PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE
SNOWMELT.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE PLAINS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TO OUR REGION ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY BUT ALSO ON
THURSDAY AS THE LOW WILL THEN PUSH EAST OF OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME
LOOKS LIKE WE'LL MAINLY SEE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY, AND THE PRECIPITATION
ON THURSDAY COULD END WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS WE'RE TALKING ABOUT DAYS 5 AND 6, MODELS LACK
AGREEMENT.TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH WARM AIR AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAM BREAKUP.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MOST SITES ARE CURRENTLY MVFR/IFR AS
RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MAY SEE A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT TO AVIATION CONDITIONS, BUT ONLY BRIEFLY AS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AREAWIDE ESPECIALLY AT BTV
AND PBG. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING TODAY, AND SOME FOG
OVER SNOWPACK MAY DEVELOP WHERE IT ISN'T TOO WINDY. HAVE
UTILIZED PROB 30 GROUPS FOR PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 35-45 KNOTS AT 2000 FT WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH IT'S EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FURTHER, AREAS LIKE KBTV MAY NOT TECHNICALLY MEET
THRESHOLDS AT TIMES AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE MOST IN THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH GUSTS NEAR TO ABOVE 30 KNOTS AT KBTV.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH ABOUT 15-18Z. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE, AND DEFINITELY VISIBILITY, AS DAYTIME
HEATING TAKES PLACE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TOWARDS KMSS ABOUT 22Z SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
ONCE AGAIN WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN, AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDER AS WELL.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,
CHANCE SN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
EQUIPMENT
THE KBTV ASOS HAS SUFFERED A COMMUNICATIONS FAILURE. THE ISSUE
HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE. THE AFFECTED COMMUNICATIONS LINE IS NOT
SERVICED BY THE NWS. TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE,
BUT REGULAR OBSERVATIONS MAY NOT BE AVAILABLE.
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON- OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS HAVE DIAGNOSED THE PROBLEM, BUT
REPAIRS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO OCCUR FOR QUITE SOME TIME DUE
TO CIRCUMSTANCES BEYOND OUR CONTROL. THEREFORE, THE TIME OF
RETURN TO SERVICE IS CURRENTLY UNKNOWN. THE FOLLOWING NOAA
WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING
THIS OUTAGE: WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG
546 FROM HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...NEILES/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...NEILES
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page