327
FXUS61 KBTV 101127
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
727 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN
NY AND NORTHWESTERN VT FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. SEE
WSW FOR MORE DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 315 AM EDT TUESDAY...
1. RIVER ICE BREAK UP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. ICE JAMS AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. OPEN WATER
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
2. UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NEAR
RECORD DAILY HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES.
3. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE A TEMPERATURE
BATTLEGROUND OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN LARGE
DIFFERENCES OVER SHORT DISTANCES. MAIN PRECIPITATION HAZARD
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN, WITH GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
4. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. DIFFICULT
TRAVEL COULD RESULT FROM SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THAT COULD
FREEZE SOME STANDING WATER, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
5. UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 726 AM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM
THURSDAY, FOR BOTH POTENTIAL ICE JAM FLOODING AND OPEN WATER
FLOODING AS WELL. ANYONE WHO LIVES, DRIVES, OR WORKS ALONG AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
WATER LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK.
WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES, SOME NEAR RECORD LEVELS,
ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE PRETTY MUCH UNABATED THROUGH
THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY. THE RESULTANT RIVER RISES ARE PRETTY
MUCH CERTAIN TO CAUSE RIVER ICE TO BREAK UP, ESPECIALLY SINCE WE
ALREADY SAW SEVERAL ICE JAMS ON SUNDAY. WHILE WE CAN PREDICT
THE CONDITIONS THAT CAUSE ICE JAMS FAIRLY READILY, WHEN OR WHERE
JAMS WILL SPECIFICALLY FORM AND HOW SIGNIFICANT ANY FLOODING
WILL BE ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT. THAT BEING SAID,
THOSE STRETCHES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE ICE JAMS IN PLACE, INCLUDING
ALONG THE MAD RIVER, THE AUSABLE RIVER, AND THE MISSISQUOI
RIVER, WILL BE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THESE SNOWMELT-INDUCED
RIVER RISES WILL BE EXACERBATED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE RAIN WILL
QUICKLY TURN OVER TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. SNOWMELT WILL LIKEWISE END AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT. TOTAL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND
0.30 INCH IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES IN
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK, THOUGH SOME OF THAT
MAY FALL AS FROZEN PRECIPITATION. STILL, THE RAIN COMBINED WITH
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES OF SNOWMELT WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO FLUSH OUT MOST OF THE ICE FROM AREA RIVERS. HOWEVER,
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT SOME RIVERS COULD RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE EVEN ONCE CLEARED OF ICE DUE TO THE COMBINED RUNOFF FROM
RAIN AND SNOWMELT. OTTER CREEK AND THE AUSABLE, WINOOSKI,
LAMOILLE, AND MAD RIVERS HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE, THOUGH REALLY ANY RIVER CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT THIS
POINT. REGARDLESS, IF OPEN WATER FLOODING WERE TO OCCUR, THE
MOST LIKELY CREST TIME WOULD BE SOMETIME THURSDAY. AND REMEMBER,
THIS IS ONLY APPLICABLE ON RIVERS THAT COMPLETELY FLUSH OUT
THEIR ICE.
WHETHER IT'S ICE JAM FLOODING OR OPEN WATER FLOODING, WE
STRONGLY URGE EVERYONE TO REMAIN CAUTIOUS ALONG AREA WATERWAYS.
RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP VERY SUDDENLY, AND WATER CAN RISE RAPIDLY
IF JAMS DO OCCUR. RIVER ICE IS VERY UNSTABLE AND IT IS
ABSOLUTELY NOT SAFE TO APPROACH ICE JAMS OR WALK ON THE ICE. AND
EVEN IF RIVERS AND STREAMS REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS, THE WATER
WILL BE RUNNING HIGH AND FAST AND IT WILL BE VERY COLD, SO
PLEASE STAY WELL AWAY FROM RIVER BANKS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: THUS FAR TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD
OVERNIGHT, BUT AS THE NORTH WIND KICKS IN WE ARE STARTING TO SEE
SOME TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP OFF MORE. THAWING CONTINUES
AREAWIDE AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL SOMETIME
THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN COLD AIR FINALLY MOVES IN AND SHUTS DOWN
SNOWMELT PROCESSES. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RISE INTO
THE 50S AND 60S, A 70 DEGREE READING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. COOLEST TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK AS A FRONT DROPS INTO THAT AREA AND NORTHERLY
FLOW PICKS UP. SOME RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3: HAVE CONTINUED TO UTILIZE SOME OF THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODEL DATA TO REALLY HONE IN ON THE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST AS IT WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON OUR POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING RAIN. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE FURTHER
COMPLICATED WITH ANTECEDENT WARMTH AND DAYTIME HEATING MAKING IT
HARDER FOR ICE TO ACCUMULATE, PARTICULARLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AND AFTER SUNRISE. THEREFORE, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTFUL FREEZING RAIN IS IN NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF NEW YORK
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 4: WHILE THERE ARE TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, THERE APPEARS TO BE A
CONSENSUS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEST
TO EAST. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING, ESPECIALLY IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WILL LEAD TO STANDING WATER TO FREEZE. GIVEN
WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR QUICKLY
FALLING TEMPERATURES, THINK THAT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40
MPH WILL NOT PREVENT POTENTIAL TRAVEL CONCERNS FOR BLACK ICE
CONCURRENT WITH THE FLOOD CONCERNS DISCUSSED IN KEY MESSAGE 1.
AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION, WHICH WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW,
LOOKS MINIMAL WITH UNBLOCKED FLOW AND A LOT OF DRY AIR DIRECTLY
BEHIND THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 5: AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BUT IT APPEARS A
DUSTING TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER MESSY
SYSTEM LOOKS POISED TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS TIME, THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. THIS SHOULD CORRESPOND
TO A MESSY P-TYPE SITUATION WHERE SURFACE TEMPS COULD INITIALLY
BE BELOW FREEZING WITH VERY WARM AIR OVERRUNNING THE STABLE
COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF (DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE RUNS) SHOW A FREEZING RAIN, TO RAIN, TO SNOW
TRANSITION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. TIMING IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE AS THIS TROUGH ISN'T EXPECTED TO FORM UNTIL LATE THIS
WEEK BUT THE CLUSTERING IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE DEFINITELY GIVES
SOME CONFIDENCE IN ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES BEING ON THE TABLE.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY QUIET TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 21Z BEFORE SOME
MVFR TO VERY LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR FREEZING
RAIN AFTER 06Z; MAINLY AT KMSS. A NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT WILL
OCCUR WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING
FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
DEFINITE FZRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
RA, LIKELY SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHSN, CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHSN.
SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHSN.
CLIMATE
MANY RECORDS ARE WITHIN REACH THIS WEEK. READ BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10:
KBTV: 63/2002
KMPV: 60/2016
KMSS: 58/1992
MARCH 11:
KSLK: 60/1977
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10:
KBTV: 44/1992
KPBG: 39/1977
RECORD PRECIPITATION:
MARCH 11:
KMSS: 1.69/1992
KSLK: 0.87/1955
EQUIPMENT
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM-44, TRANSMITTING FROM MT.
ASCUTNEY, VERMONT, ON FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ IS NON-OPERATIONAL
AT THIS TIME. NWS TECHNICIANS PLAN TO RESTORE ITS FUNCTIONALITY
TOMORROW, MARCH 10TH. THE FOLLOWING NOAA WEATHER RADIO
TRANSMITTERS MAY BE ABLE TO PROVIDE SERVICE DURING THE OUTAGE:
WWG 50 FROM BURKE MTN, VT AT 162.425 MHZ AND WNG 546 FROM
HANOVER, NH AT 162.525 MHZ.
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR VTZ001>011-016>021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ001.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ026>031-034-035-
087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026>028-030-031-087.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...NEILES/CLAY
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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