309
FXUS61 KBTV 260629
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
229 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 227 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 227 AM EDT THURSDAY...
1. WARMING CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT, CHANGING TO TERRAIN SNOW BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
2. UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO START
THE WEEKEND.
3. BECOMING WARMER WITH THE TRAIN OF WEATHER SYSTEMS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 227 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: FOLLOWING THE NORTHWARD LIFT OF A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE REGION. AS MORNING SHOWERS LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, THERE
SHOULD BE SOME TIME FOR SOME DAYTIME HEATING WITH SOUTHERLY WAA.
LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AS THE LOW TO MID LEVELS DRY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT PERHAPS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BRIEFLY, BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDING ON THE TOTAL MIXING AND MAY BE
RELIANT ON SOME BREAKS IN SUN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT
SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER BETWEEN SYSTEM TOMORROW WHICH MAY KEEP HIGHS
UNDER 60. AIDING OUR WARM SURGE WILL BE BREEZY SOUTH TO NORTH WINDS
15-20 MPH PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY, SHIFTING THE
AREA OF BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE EASTERN DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN GREENS, WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH 20-25 MPH.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTERNOON TOMORROW FROM NORTHERN
NEW YORK INTO VERMONT. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM HAS SLIDE A BIT SOUTH
IN THE RECENT GUIDANCE WHICH HAS LED TO A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, HOWEVER WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING A
WETTING RAIN BETWEEN A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY, DUE TO ADIRONDACKS SHADOWING, AND AROUND A QUARTER INCH
ELSEWHERE. LOCATIONS IN EXTREME SOUTHERN VERMONT COULD SEE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 0.4 INCHES. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING SHARPLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
SUCH THAT FRIDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO
MID 20S. AS TEMPERATURES FALL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, TAPERING
OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST, THEN POTENTIALLY REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS
BRIEFLY, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE EXITING AT THE SURFACE AS TEMPERATURES
FALL WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
QUICK DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ABOVE. THE SUMMITS
COULD LOCALLY SEE AN INCH POTENTIALLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD FULLY CLEAR
THE REGION BY EARLY TO MID MORNING FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BEHIND OUR END OF WEEK SYSTEM FRIDAY MORNING, THE REST
OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WEATHER WISE WITH CLEARING SKIES, THOUGH
REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
FREEZING MARK WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. WITH CLEARING
SKIES, HOWEVER, THE MARCH SUN ANGLE SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WOULD SUGGEST. THIS SUN ANGLE
SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT UNDER 1500FT, WHICH
WITH THE RAINFALL FROM TODAY WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCAL RIVER
RISES, HOWEVER, NO RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH ACTION
STAGE. BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WILL SUBSIDE BY THE
AFTERNOON AS WE TREND TOWARDS LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL, IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, BE THE LAST COLD
NIGHT OF THE SEASON AS LOWS DIP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WHERE LOWS WILL FALL TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. A FEW SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NORTHERN NORTHEAST KINGDOM
COULD POTENTIALLY NEAR 0 DEGREES. LOWS IN GENERAL WILL NOT BE
RECORD BREAKING BY ANY MEANS, BUT RATHER 10 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY KEEPING THE REGION UNDER
UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK
AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S, AS NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO KEEP COOL CANADIAN AIR FUNNELED INTO THE AREA. NOTABLY,
WHILE THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CALM WEATHER ON SATURDAY,
LAPSE RATES WILL BE RELATIVELY STEEP WITH SOME ENERGY RIDING ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTIVE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY GIVEN THE HIGH AND DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA, AND ANY
SHOWERS WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY IMPACTS AS ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINIMAL WITH LIMITED MOISTURE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY, THE JET STREAM REMAINS
VERY FAST IN THE FORECAST. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SPEEDS ACROSS THE BELT
OF WESTERLIES ACROSS CANADA WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO ZIP ALONG THIS
EXPRESS WITHOUT A REAL CONNECTION TO DEEP, TROPICAL MOISTURE. IT
DOES APPEAR TOWARDS THE BACK HALF OF NEXT WEEK THAT THE PERSISTENTLY
FAST FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN. SO A PATTERN CHANGE IS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND.
LOOKING AT SUNDAY, THE AXIS OF A 500MB TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST WITH A
NEAR 1040MB HIGH SETTLING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE BEAUTIFUL WITH SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A SURFACE LOW WITH
MARGINAL MOISTURE WILL TRACK ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE ON MONDAY AND
DRAG A SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA.
TUESDAY APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY DRY DAY IN THIS STRETCH BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN. ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. AS NOTED ABOVE, THE BREAK DOWN OF CHANNELED
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE PATTERN THAT WILL OPEN US
UP TO MORE MOIST, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. IT APPEARS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST TO TRACK INTO THE
AREA TOWARDS NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM
ROUGHLY OGS TO BTV TO 1V4 THIS MORNING WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT
PRECIP LIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR TAF SITES.
THIS PRECIP IS MAINLY FALLING AS VIRGA AS LOW LEVELS ARE DRY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S, HOWEVER AS SATURATION CONTINUES
EXPECT SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS OF FREEZING
RAIN AT MSS. THE COMBINATION OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW, COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS AT MSS
BETWEEN 06Z-08Z THIS MORNING. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS/VIS TRENDING TOWARD VFR AT ALL
SITES BY 12Z. AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE IS
LIKELY THROUGH THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH 2000 TO 4000 FOOT
WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS. AS BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS SHEAR
DECREASES AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 25 KNOTS. SURFACE LOW PRES AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
OUR TAF SITES WITH A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
THE NORTH. THIS WILL QUICKLY LOWER CIGS TOWARD IFR WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW BETWEEN 00Z-03Z BEFORE ENDING. A PERIOD OF IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY AT MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN 22Z-04Z THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
EQUIPMENT
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS AND THERE ISN'T AN
ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE AT PRESENT. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU
OBSERVE WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL
FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANZIG
DISCUSSION...DANZIG/HAYNES
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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