182
FXUS61 KBTV 262341
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
741 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 241 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LIQUID AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES EXCEPT FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE UP TO 0.75 INCHES MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 241 PM EDT THURSDAY...
1. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL WITH
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
2. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
ENTIRE TIME PERIOD. WIND CHILLS WILL BE QUITE COLD FRIDAY MORNING.
3. FOLLOWING A MAINLY DRY START TO THE WEEK, A SEASONABLY WARM
AND WETTER PERIOD IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 241 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 3 PM. AN IMPULSE IS
MOVING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER AS A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY CAUSE
SHADOWING INITIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
GREENS BEFORE FLOW SHIFTS MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.
COINCIDENTALLY, MODEL TIMING OF THE STRONGER IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PRIMARY TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME MORE
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR PRECIP OUTPUT ARE PHASING OVER VERMONT THIS
EVENING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN QPF EXPECTED. STILL,
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN 0.5" BUT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT MAY RANGE 0.5-0.75". THERE'S ABOUT A 25% CHANCE THAT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT RANGE 0.33-0.66" SHOULD FLOW BE STRONGER
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. LOWEST AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED IN THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE SHADOWING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED WITH TOTALS
RANGING 0.1-0.33". ELSEWHERE, 0.25-0.50" IS FAVORED. AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT, RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH A
DUSTING TO 0.2 INCHES FAVORED FOR MOST PLACES IN NORTHERN VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE UP TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
SUMMITS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL
USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE DAILY HIGH FOR FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASING
THROUGH DAY BREAK BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN. GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE 20 TO 30 MPH FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN SOME COLD
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND TEENS FOR MUCH OF VERMONT. AS -14 TO -18C TEMPERATURES SETTLE
OVERHEAD AT 925MB AND 850MB RESPECTIVELY, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY (SOUTHERN
VERMONT LIKELY TO RANGE 32-36 DEGREES FRIDAY) THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FAVORED TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH 10-15 DEGREES FOR MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS' PROJECTED TO DIP INTO THE TEENS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING FASTER THAN TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR WEAK
FRONTS AND LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO BE POSSIBLE WITH MARGINALLY
COLD AIR PUSHING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
NORTHERLY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE DISRUPTED BY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
JET STREAM RETREATS FARTHER NORTH AND ENTIRELY PACIFIC AIR, RATHER
THAN MIX OF POLAR AND PACIFIC, OVERSPREADS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT. CURRENTLY THERE ARE LIMITED SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. ONLY THE VERY WETTEST MODEL GUIDANCE (UNDER 5%) SUGGESTING
HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS.
THAT BEING SAID, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY SET UP TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WITH A LONG DURATION OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE. THE WETTEST CLUSTER IN THE 12Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AVERAGE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OF OVER
AN INCH IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK, INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL SOAKING RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS
LARGE VARIATION IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY MOVING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, NOT ONLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BUT
TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN, WHICH COULD TREND BACK TO WINTRY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SHALLOW COLD AIR IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. THERE
IS A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER SCENARIOS BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA, BUT IT REMAINS WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO AS WE APPROACH THIS
WETTER PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2-6 HOURS AS THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING RAINFALL RATES AND LOWER CEILINGS AS A COLD FRONT
SHIFTS WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 4-8 KNOTS BRINGS 500-1500
FT AGL CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1-6 SM. EACH TERMINAL WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME LEVEL OF IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY KEFK AND KSLK, AND LESS SO AT KPBG AND KMSS. AFTER
06Z, PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE, THOUGH THERE COULD
BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS, AND NOTED MAINLY ACROSS PROB30S. LOWER
CEILINGS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS MORE BEFORE LIFTING BETWEEN
07Z-12Z, AND TRENDING VFR BEYOND 13-16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ACCELERATE AS CEILINGS LIFT, WITH 9-16 KNOTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS
18-27 KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR KBTV AND KPBG. AFTER 16Z,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN, BUT MOST REMAINING ABOVE 7 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, CHANCE
SN.
EQUIPMENT
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO
SERVICE IS MAY 1ST. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BOYD
DISCUSSION...BOYD/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...HAYNES
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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