752
FXUS61 KBTV 270508
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
108 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 241 PM EDT THURSDAY...
LIQUID AMOUNTS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES EXCEPT FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE UP TO 0.75 INCHES MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 241 PM EDT THURSDAY...
1. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES FALL WITH
VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
2. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR THE
ENTIRE TIME PERIOD. WIND CHILLS WILL BE QUITE COLD FRIDAY MORNING.
3. FOLLOWING A MAINLY DRY START TO THE WEEK, A SEASONABLY WARM
AND WETTER PERIOD IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 241 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BY 3 PM. AN IMPULSE IS
MOVING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER AS A DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY CAUSE
SHADOWING INITIALLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
GREENS BEFORE FLOW SHIFTS MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.
COINCIDENTALLY, MODEL TIMING OF THE STRONGER IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PRIMARY TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOME MORE
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR PRECIP OUTPUT ARE PHASING OVER VERMONT THIS
EVENING WHICH HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN QPF EXPECTED. STILL,
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE LESS THAN 0.5" BUT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT MAY RANGE 0.5-0.75". THERE'S ABOUT A 25% CHANCE THAT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN VERMONT RANGE 0.33-0.66" SHOULD FLOW BE STRONGER
ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. LOWEST AMOUNTS ARE FAVORED IN THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE SHADOWING WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED WITH TOTALS
RANGING 0.1-0.33". ELSEWHERE, 0.25-0.50" IS FAVORED. AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT, RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WITH A
DUSTING TO 0.2 INCHES FAVORED FOR MOST PLACES IN NORTHERN VERMONT
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK WHILE UP TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
SUMMITS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY WILL
USHER IN UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE DAILY HIGH FOR FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASING
THROUGH DAY BREAK BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER DOWN. GUSTS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE 20 TO 30 MPH FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN SOME COLD
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND TEENS FOR MUCH OF VERMONT. AS -14 TO -18C TEMPERATURES SETTLE
OVERHEAD AT 925MB AND 850MB RESPECTIVELY, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY (SOUTHERN
VERMONT LIKELY TO RANGE 32-36 DEGREES FRIDAY) THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FAVORED TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT WITH 10-15 DEGREES FOR MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS' PROJECTED TO DIP INTO THE TEENS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A WEATHER PATTERN FEATURING FASTER THAN TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR WEAK
FRONTS AND LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO BE POSSIBLE WITH MARGINALLY
COLD AIR PUSHING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA WHEN LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS
NORTHERLY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD BE DISRUPTED BY WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
JET STREAM RETREATS FARTHER NORTH AND ENTIRELY PACIFIC AIR, RATHER
THAN MIX OF POLAR AND PACIFIC, OVERSPREADS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND
VERMONT. CURRENTLY THERE ARE LIMITED SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. ONLY THE VERY WETTEST MODEL GUIDANCE (UNDER 5%) SUGGESTING
HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE ADIRONDACKS.
THAT BEING SAID, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT MAY SET UP TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WITH A LONG DURATION OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE. THE WETTEST CLUSTER IN THE 12Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A
24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AVERAGE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OF OVER
AN INCH IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK, INDICATIVE OF THE
POTENTIAL SOAKING RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS
LARGE VARIATION IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY MOVING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, NOT ONLY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BUT
TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN, WHICH COULD TREND BACK TO WINTRY
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SHALLOW COLD AIR IS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. THERE
IS A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER SCENARIOS BASED ON THE LATEST
DATA, BUT IT REMAINS WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO AS WE APPROACH THIS
WETTER PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...AVIATION CHALLENGE IS TIMING THE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM IFR/LIFR TO MVFR/VFR ACROSS OUR TAF
STIES THIS MORNING. CURRENTLY A WIDE RANGE OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES
FROM LIFR AT MPV TO IFR AT BTV/RUT/SLK/EFK AND MVFR AT MSS AND
VFR AT PBG. BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ADVECT DRIER AIR WITH IMPROVING CIGS/VIS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS OUR TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND BLOCKED FLOW, FEEL IFR CIGS LINGER THE
LONGEST AT RUT, WHILE EFK SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT 1
TO 2 HOURS. ALSO, FEEL DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL HELP
TO PUSH SHALLOW MOISTURE TOWARD THE SURFACE AT SLK, RESULTING
IN ADDITIONAL IFR CIGS THRU 10/11Z. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AS LOCALIZED
WINDS GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE TO VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRES DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS BY MID AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
RA, SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, CHANCE
SN.
EQUIPMENT
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO
SERVICE IS MAY 1ST. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BOYD
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/BOYD
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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