723
FXUS61 KBTV 280700
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
300 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 249 AM EDT SATURDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THIS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 249 AM EDT SATURDAY...
1. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE TYPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
2. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, INCREASED WARMTH, AND
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
3. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 249 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NE CONUS WITH AN
EMBEDDED 700-500MB S/W APPROACHING THE SLV. THIS S/W ENERGY HAS
LIMITED MOISTURE PER LATEST SATL AND SFC OBSERVATIONS, BUT
DEVELOPING INSTABILITY TODAY WL HELP IN THE ENHANCEMENT OF SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS. SOUNDING DATA SHOWS STEEPENING SFC TO 700MB LAPSE
RATES OF 7-9 C/KM WITH A SMALL POCKET OF BETTER MOISTURE DEVELOPING
BTWN 850MB AND 700MB AFTER 16Z. THE HRRR/RAP SOLUTIONS ARE MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
ASSOCIATED QPF/SNOWFALL, WHILE NAM/NAM3KM ARE MUCH DRIER AND LESS
ROBUST WITH QPF/SNOWFALL. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM SATL/RADAR TRENDS AND
VERY DRY SFC DWPTS TODAY, I HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE CHC RANGE WITH
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN DACKS AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREENS. AS
DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS, EXPECT LOWERING SFC DWPTS THIS AFTN, WITH
MIN RH'S IN THE 22-32% RANGE. DID INTEGRATE SOME 10% PERCENTILE NBM
DWPTS IN THE GRIDS. ALSO, HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS AS TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES INDICATES GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS RANGE FROM
-6C TO -9C SUPPORTING HIGHS UPPER TEENS SUMMITS TO MID 30S WARMER
VALLEYS. HAVE UTILIZED THE MTN MAX TEMP TOOL TO HIGHLIGHT COOLER
VALUES NEAR SUMMIT LEVEL TODAY. TONIGHT ANY CONVECTIVE CLOUDS/PRECIP
QUICKLY DISSIPATES AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN VERY DRY SFC DWPTS, EXPECT
TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY AFT SUNSET, HOWEVER POSITION OF 1034MB HIGH
PRES OVER CENTRAL-SOUTHERN PA, DOES CREATE A LITTLE PRES GRADIENT
AND POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT. I DID
LOWER TEMPS FROM NBM TOWARD THE MAV GUIDELINE, WHICH SHOWS LOWS 10
TO 20F ACRS OUR CWA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE QUIET WITH WARMING TEMPS
INTO THE 40S ON MONDAY AND 50S ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND AS CONDITIONS WARM TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION LOOK
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 60S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN MAINLY RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. ONCE THE
BOUNDARY LIFTS AS A WARM FRONT AND EXITS THE REGION, COOLER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 3: THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING
TO THE NEXT SYSTEM BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER QUEBEC MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND IS REPLACED BY AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS IS TYPICAL, THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GFS IS MOVING THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT MORE SWIFTLY
THAN THE ECMWF. THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND WEATHER TYPE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. WITH PROJECTED HIGHS IN THE 40S-50S
AND LOWS IN THE 20S-30S, WE COULD SEE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT
PRECIP TYPES DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF LOW VISIBILITIES ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS BELOW 30% CHANCE, INDICATING THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MOST LIKELY SPOT TO HAVE A SNOW SHOWER AND/OR HIGH MVFR CEILINGS
WOULD BE KSLK SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
LIKELIHOOD AND TIMING OF THIS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A
SLIGHT NORTHERLY TENDENCY WILL CONTINUE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WESTERLY
SUSTAINED WINDS 10-20 KNOTS AND GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS BY AROUND 12Z-18Z
AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE SHSN.
TUESDAY: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
EQUIPMENT
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO
SERVICE IS MAY 1ST. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TABER
DISCUSSION...STORM/TABER
AVIATION...STORM
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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