950
FXUS61 KBTV 291117
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 551 AM EDT SUNDAY...UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MENTION OF LIKELY POPS
ACRS THE SLV AND WESTERN DACKS. CRNT RADAR AND SFC OBS INDICATE
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING WITH VIS BTWN 1-4SM IN MANY LOCATIONS ACRS
NORTHERN NY. THIS SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE AREA BY 14Z WITH JUST A
DUSTING TO 1 INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TUESDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING DOWNWARDS DUE TO MOISTURE, RAIN POTENTIAL,
AND CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 40S TO
MID 50S EXCEPT A FEW SPOTS IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY
POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR 60 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE INCREASES
FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM TO HAVE MAINLY RAIN AS ITS PRECIPITATION
TYPE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 239 AM EDT SUNDAY...
1. TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
2. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHERLY
BREEZES.
3. ACTIVE PATTERN PREVAILS LATE WEEK WITH A WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY, KICKING OFF WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND BRINGING SURFACE TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES, GENERALLY IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
QUIET WEATHER TODAY AND PERHAPS A COUPLE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 60S THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, THOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A TOUCH COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR
TUESDAY'S HIGHS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO SEE A GRADUAL WARMING
OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS WITH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
AS THE UPPER 20S AND 30S, LIKELY BECOMING UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50S
BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO STAY
TUNED FOR FUTURE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK
WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
REGION. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING
UP ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE IN THE FORM OF MAINLY RAIN AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND 50S IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
STORM, AND THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION AND NORTHERN SPOTS COULD HAVE SOME QUICK SNOW AT THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT NOT BELOW FREEZING, SO RAIN REMAINS THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE
BRIEFLY TO SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TUESDAY NIGHT ALSO
FEATURES THE MODELED PEAK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT AROUND
1.10-1.40 INCHES, AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SLOW/TRAINING
MOTION VECTORS LIKELY. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE TIMING OF BOTH THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET UP TO 55-65 KNOTS AT 850MB PASSING
OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL
BLENDS ARE INDICATING ABOUT 10-40% CHANCES OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
OCCURRING IN 24 HOURS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ARE AROUND
1.00-2.00 ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, NORTHERN VERMONT, AND THE SPINE
OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT, BETWEEN 0.40-1.00 IS ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, SHIFTING FROM SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THE RAIN WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME THE JET IS SCREAMING OVERHEAD, THERE COULD BE LULLS AND DRY
SLOTS DURING THIS PERIOD (PARTICULARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING), POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN VERY GUSTY SURFACE CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO A BRIEF PAUSE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM RETURNS STEADY PRECIP TO THE AREA LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3: STILL A LARGE SPREAD IN LATEST GUIDANCE WITH
REGARDS TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ACRS OUR FA.
LATEST WPC FORECAST INDICATES COOLER TEMPS FOR THURS/FRI WITH
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
CURRENT WPC FORECAST SHOWS POPS IN THE 60 TO 70% RANGE, BUT PROB
OF MEASURABLE PRECIP IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD IS NEAR 100%, WHICH
INDICATES HIGH CHANCE PRECIP WL OCCUR AND RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE. THE PRIMARY ISSUE IS THE PLACEMENT OF
BOUNDARY SEPARATING VERY WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH AND MUCH COOLER
AIR TO THE NORTH, SUPPLIED BY RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH PRES.
LATEST 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED COOLER WITH A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT
IN HIGH PRES, RESULTING IN COOLER SFC TO 925MB TEMPS ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST A GREATER
PROBABILITY OF MIXED PRECIP, WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN SLV/CPV AND PARTS OF THE NEK. GIVEN THE VERY
SHARP THERMAL BOUNDARY PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHERE ACRS THE MID
ATLANTIC/NE CONUS ON THURS INTO FRIDAY, HAVE ADJUSTED THE PTYPE
GRIDS TO MENTION JUST RAIN OR SNOW AT THIS TIME. THIS WL NEED TO
BE FINE TUNED WHEN HIGHER RES DATA IS AVAILABLE. ALSO, HAVE LEFT
WPC TEMPS FOR NOW, BUT THEY ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE AS EVENT
BECOMES CLOSER. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH
LOWS UPPER 20S TO MID 30S FOR LATE WEEK, BEFORE A WARMING TREND
DEVELOPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN NY
INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A FEW HEAVIER RETURNS HAVE PRODUCED LOCALIZED IFR VIS
AT SLK/MSS. THIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF MSS/SLK BY 14Z THIS
MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL SITES. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WITH LOCALIZED
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED BETWEEN 15Z AND 22Z TODAY. WINDS
WEAKEN AROUND SUNSET WITH AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LIKELY
AT MSS/SLK AND RUT THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SN.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE RA, SLIGHT
CHANCE SN.
EQUIPMENT
THE COLCHESTER REEF METEOROLOGICAL STATION IS OUT OF SERVICE.
THIS SITE IS NOT SERVICED BY THE NWS. AN ESTIMATED RETURN TO
SERVICE IS MAY 1ST. PLEASE CONTACT US IF YOU OBSERVE WINDS
SIGNIFICANTLY DEVIATING FROM THE RECREATIONAL FORECAST.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STORM
DISCUSSION...TABER/STORM
AVIATION...TABER
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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