097
FXUS61 KBTV 171833
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
233 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 233 PM EDT FRIDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 233 PM EDT FRIDAY...
1. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH SOME
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
2. TURNING MUCH COLDER FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
3. MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 233 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SLOWLY
INCREASE SATURDAY AS FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOISTURE
AND TEMPERATURES WILL BOTH INCREASE IN RESPONSE. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WESTWARD WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED, STRONGEST IN THE THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST EAST OF THE GREENS,
KEEPING THOSE AREAS A BIT COOLER; HIGHS THERE WILL TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THE FRONT MAKES ITS APPROACH LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY, THEN MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AS MENTIONED, MOISTURE WILL
SURGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT; PWATS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 1.25 INCH.
THIS IS A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT MODELS WERE INDICATING 24 HOURS AGO,
BUT STILL WITHIN THE 97-99TH PERCENTILE FOR APRIL. INSTABILITY WILL
BE FAIRLY MEAGER DUE TO SUB-OPTIMAL OVERNIGHT TIMING AND A WARM
LAYER AT 850 MB, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AT
TIMES, PERHAPS AROUND 0.50 IN/HR. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS
TRICKY, AS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WHILE
SOUTH FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE OR HOLD STEADY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, PARTICULARLY IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. BY THE TIME THE
FRONT EXITS TO OUR SOUTHEAST MID-MORNING SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S IN THE ADIRONDACKS/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY,
WHILE AREAS FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. THIS ALL COMES CRASHING DOWN THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH AS
COLD AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY WANE
A BIT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT. THEREFORE,
GIVEN THE FALLING TEMPERATURES, RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW, MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS SNOW LEVELS FALL TO 1200-1800 FT BY SUNSET
SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED ABOVE 2000 FT, WHERE A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE, ACCUMULATION WOULD BE JUST A FEW TENTHS AT MOST. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE WEST AND REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL,
RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. ALL IN ALL,
EXPECT A RAW, DAMP, AND BREEZY END TO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AND DRIER
AIR. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH ONLY MINIMAL ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE 20S TO NEAR 30F BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD, THOUGH IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE CHILLY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, SOME 10-
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON THE
BREEZY SIDE, 10 TO 15 MPH GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. AS SUCH, IT'LL FEEL
QUITE A BIT COLDER DURING THE DAY AS WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL GENERALLY BE IN PLACE FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES AROUND AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. THE ONE PRECIPITATION CHANCE
WILL BE WHEN A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH SOMETIME TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY BUT PRECIPITATION WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE SHOULD
BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, BUT THE EXACT SNOW LEVELS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
DURING THE TIME WITH THE MOST PRECIPITATION, THE NBM PROBABILITY OF
SNOW LEVELS BELOW 1,000 FEET ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 30 PERCENT.
BELOW 3,000 FEET THEY ARE BETWEEN 60 TO 80 PERCENT. IN ALL, ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
VERY MINOR.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...TERMINALS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF FLIGHT
CATEGORIES DUE TO AREAS OF LOW CEILINGS. HOWEVER, THESE CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO SCATTER THIS AFTERNOON AND BY 21Z ALL TERMINALS
SHOULD BE VFR. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE NIGHT, THOUGH THE PROBABILITIES
OF IT REACHING MOST OF THE TERMINALS ARE RELATIVELY LOW, MAYBE
BETWEEN 15-30 PERCENT AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL. HOWEVER, THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT A FOG OR VERY LOW CLOUD DECK FORMS ON LAKE
CHAMPLAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO TRY TO REACH PBG AND POSSIBLY BTV
SO PROBABILITIES OF SEEING IFR CONDITIONS ARE HIGHER THERE. THE FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS EXIT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY
MOVE BACK INTO MPV TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND AND UNDER 10 KT FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY. THEY WILL GO MOSTLY CALM AND TERRAIN DRIVEN
TONIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW. GUSTS IN THE
20-30 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR BTV AND
PBG.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA, LIKELY
SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HASTINGS
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/HASTINGS
AVIATION...MYSKOWSKI
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