857
FXUS61 KBTV 180746
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 303 AM EDT SATURDAY...
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRANKLIN AND CLINTON
COUNTIES IN NEW YORK FROM 5 PM TODAY TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH. ELSEWHERE GUSTS WERE INCREASED TO 30
TO 40 MPH.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 303 AM EDT SATURDAY...
1. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
2. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN
WILL TURN TO SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
3. SPOTTY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, THEN
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 303 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN AND
CLINTON COUNTIES IN NORTHERN NEW YORK FROM 5 PM TODAY TO
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE US ROUTE 11 CORRIDOR
FROM MOIRA, NY TO ELLENBURG DEPOT, NEW YORK AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT.
A FEW POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREE LIMBS MAY RESULT.
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT, LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
AS LARGE SCALE DIVERGENCE LEADS TO DRYING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES
AREAWIDE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL DRY INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS VERMONT WITH WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING BEHIND A DEPARTING
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE
ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SURGE INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70 ACROSS VERMONT, WITH LOW TO MID 70S IN NORTHERN NEW YORK
WHERE BETTER MIXING AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE LOCATED. THESE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES, COUPLED WITH SURFACE DRYING AND AN
APPROACHING 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS, WILL HELP
MIX DOWN GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WIDESPREAD GUSTS,
BEGINNING TO INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, WILL
REACH 30 TO 40 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY MID TO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, PEAKING AROUND SUNSET. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE ADIRONDACKS
WHERE ENHANCEMENT FROM DOWNSLOPING WILL LEAD TO GUSTS UP TO 40
TO 50 MPH, PARTICULARLY ALONG US 11 NEAR MALONE, NY. CHANNELED
FLOW IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY
COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK FOR
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BETWEEN
7-9 PM, BUT AS IT MOVES EAST, IT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME WASHED
OUT BY TOMORROW MORNING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR AND BLOCKED
FLOW. HOWEVER, A SECONDARY ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY LEADING TO CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT BY
LATE SUNDAY. AS THE SECONDARY FRONT ENTERS THE REGION,
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL MIX TOWARDS THE SURFACE WITH
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING BELOW FREEZING INTO THE 20S BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS COLD AIR IS TRICKY AS THE DYNAMICS
BETWEEN THE TWO COLD FRONT IS NOT HANDLED VERY WELL. IT IS
EXPECTED THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NON-DIURNAL SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT WHEN THE STRONGER
CAA ARRIVES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN A PRECIPITATION CHANGEOVER TO
SNOW. MOUNTAIN SUMMITS WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FIRST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, BUT THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH
THE STRONGEST COLD AIR VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. THE HRRR AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES SHOW A WARMER SYSTEM WITH MORE DELAYED COLD AIR
ARRIVING LEADING TO RAIN IN THE VALLEYS WITH TAPERING OFF
PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. THE NAM3K HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT, HOWEVER, IN CO-LOCATING THE COLD AIR ARRIVAL WITH
THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS, AND GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, IS FOR A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW WITH PERHAPS SOME SLEET MIXED IN, WITH LITTLE TO NO
VALLEY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, HOWEVER, SHOULD THE SYSTEM AMPLIFY
MORE AND BECOME ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH, SLOWING THE SYSTEM, SOME
SNOW MAY BE FAVORED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW, LEADING TO WIND CHILLS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. REGARDLESS WITH PRECIPITATION AND
COLDER TEMPERATURES, EXPECTED A RAW, DAMP, AND BREEZY END TO THE
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES ON MONDAY. SOME
SNOW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL IF AT
ALL. STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO WINTER LIKE TEMPERATURES AS OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S, WITH SOME TEENS IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
KEY MESSAGE 3: AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL SHIFT FROM
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY,
RETURNING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION AND HELPING
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TOWARDS TYPICAL SPRINGTIME NORMALS. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 40S AND LOWER
50S, BUT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN MONDAY WITH A LITTLE MORE
SUNSHINE AND THE WARMING SOUTH WIND. HOWEVER, CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT MAY
BRING SOME SPOTTY, LIGHT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATION
DEPENDENT, WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AS LOW TEMPERATURES VARY ACROSS THE 30S F.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGH
TERRAIN AND VERY MINOR. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE
OVER HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL, ALLOWING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S BUT REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING GYRATES OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES, KEEPING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AS OUR AREA IS ON THE EDGE OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW. DUE TO THIS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS WELL AS
NIGHTTIME CLEARING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE, LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK,
MODELS PROJECT A WAVE TO RIDE ALONG CYCLONIC FLOW INTO OUR AREA,
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE DOES NOT AGREE ON TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE,
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES, NOR SOURCE OF MOISTURE FOR PRECIP, SO
IT IS YET TO BE DETERMINED HOW EXACTLY THIS PLAYS OUT. MOST LIKELY
WILL BE SHOWERY AND SEASONABLE TO START THE WEEKEND, BUT NO MAJOR
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS
MORNING, THOUGH PREDICTABILITY IS LOW. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY, FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS. RAIN WILL TURN TO SNOW OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH
SOME ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONG ON
MOUNTAINTOPS 30-35 KNOTS, BUT IN AREAS WITH WHERE THIS IS NOT
MIXING TO THE SURFACE AND WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE LEFT FROM
YESTERDAY'S RAIN, WE'RE SEEING INTERMITTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
ONE SUCH PLACE IS KPBG, WHERE WE SUSPECT A LOW-LYING LAKE CLOUD
IS HELPING TO PRODUCE VIS 1-2 MILES. ANOTHER SPOT IS KEFK, WHICH
IS BEGINNING TO REPORT MIST 2-4 MILES. IT'S HARD TO SAY HOW
WIDESPREAD THIS EPIDEMIC OF FOG IS GOING TO BECOME THIS MORNING
AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO COVER NORTHERN NEW YORK AND PROCEED
TOWARDS VERMONT. ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY, KPBG AND KEFK BOTH
HAVE ABOUT 30% CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AROUND 10Z-12Z SATURDAY WHEN WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST, AROUND 10-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-35 KNOTS LIKELY
AROUND 12Z-18Z ONWARDS THROUGH THE END OF THE 24 HOUR TAF
PERIOD. SOME MARGINAL LLWS IS EXPECTED AT MSS BEFORE SURFACE
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO BETTER MATCH THE
JET ALOFT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VERMONT AROUND
00Z-06Z SUNDAY, SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TO OTHER SITES
AFTERWARDS, BRINGING WITH THEM LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS
AS WELL AS THE RETURN OF LLWS AT THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT
FOR NYZ027-028-030-031.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANZIG
DISCUSSION...STORM/DANZIG
AVIATION...STORM
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