322
FXUS61 KBTV 200009
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
809 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 257 PM EDT SUNDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY TOWARDS THIS EVENING.
UNSEASONABLE COLD AND ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
FOR TOMORROW, SOME OF WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 257 PM EDT SUNDAY...
1. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS
OBSERVING AT LEAST A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS THE DAY CONTINUES.
2. UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE WORK
WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAY IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE.
3. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY STEADY NEAR SEASONABLE
NORMALS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A BLOCKING
PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT DETAILS ARE
UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 257 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT EXITED THE REGION
THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, WITH
CURRENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BETWEEN LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR SNOWFALL TO BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE
WIDESPREAD SNOW, ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN A DIFFERENT STORY, WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING IN THE VALLEYS DUE TO WARMER
GROUND TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY AFTER HITTING THE 70S YESTERDAY.
MEANWHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE SEEM MORE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL, WITH
SOME HIGHER SUMMITS RECEIVING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME
PRECIPITATION IS OVER, WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SNOW WILL BE
TRAVEL RELATED, AS VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES
WITHIN STEADIER PRECIPITATION. SLICK ROADS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. GIVEN THE LATE SEASON SNOWFALL,
MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES, BUT A FEW CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK
AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. BY MONDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES, SOME PATCHES OF BLACK ICE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS
WITH STANDING WATER FROM THE RECENT PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONALLY,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU LOOK AT, SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD BE ON THE HEAVIER SIDE AND MAY IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE TOMORROW MORNING. DESPITE SHOWER CHANCES, ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE, WITH DECREASING
SHOWER CHANCES TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
WILL BE QUITE FRIGID FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE 30S TO LOW 40S, WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 50S. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS
TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLINGS, WITH
TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING INTO THE TEENS AND MID 20S OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT AT THIS TIME THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY WEEK AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE WEEK. FOLLOWING A DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAKES A RUN AT US FROM THE WEST, SOME COMPLEX INTERACTIONS
WITHIN THE STEERING PATTERNS WILL DEVELOP. GENERALLY THIS TROUGH
SHOULD ENCOUNTER CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT THAT WOULD LEAD TO A
WEAKENING TREND IN PRECIPITATION, BUT OVERALL RAIN CHANCES
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ARE FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. THINK
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MAY BE OVERLY DISPERSIVE IN THIS PERIOD WITH A
LOT OF MEMBERS SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. GENERALLY THE PATTERN
SUGGESTS HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD ARE IN
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND PRIMARILY IN
CENTRAL NEW YORK, CONSISTENT WITH SEVERAL DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS.
BASED ON GLOBAL ENSEMBLE DATA, PROBABILITIES OF A SOAKING RAIN ARE
SOMEWHAT HIGH (RAINFALL EXCEEDS 0.25" IN ABOUT 30 TO 60% OF MODELS
WITHIN THE SCENARIOS WITH LOWER 500 MILLIBAR HEIGHTS/GREATER
TROUGHING UPSTREAM). TO GIVE AN IDEA OF THE UNCERTAINTY, ANOTHER
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER WITH GOOD MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT SHOWS MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONLY REACHING 25 TO 60% RANGE, AND WITH A
PREFERENCE FOR RAIN TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY RATHER THAN SATURDAY.
THEREFORE, THE GENERAL IDEA OF A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND STILL LOOKS REASONABLE, GIVEN THE SPREAD IN MODEL OUTPUT AND
THE LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS MANY DAYS OUT WITHIN A BLOCKED PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODULATED BY ANY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDY
PERIODS, BUT GENERALLY LOOK NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...THE LINE OF STRATIFORM RAIN/SNOW HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA, ALLOWING FOR STEADIER PRECIPITATION TO
COME TO AN END. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IS MOVING IN, WHICH WILL PROMPT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS, EXPECT PREDOMINANTLY
VFR CEILINGS. WITHIN SHOWERS, CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
BRIEFLY LOWER TOWARDS MVFR LEVELS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL BE RIGHT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD (MAINLY
00Z-02Z) AND AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. AFTER 12Z, EXPECT RESIDUAL SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST THROUGH 06Z, BECOMING NORTHWEST
AFTER 06Z. WHILE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE UNDER 10 KNOTS TONIGHT,
SOME DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AT KBTV, KSLK,
KPBG, KMPV, AND KMSS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...KREMER
DISCUSSION...KREMER/KUTIKOFF
AVIATION...DUELL
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