395
FXUS61 KBTV 201748
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
148 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 1007 AM EDT MONDAY...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO KEEP SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
LINGERING BEHIND THE EXITING BOUNDARY THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 225 AM EDT MONDAY...
1. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH SLICK ROADS
AS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
2. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE.
3. QUIET WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. RISING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 225 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A SWINGING SHORTWAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE TO PARTS OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL UNTIL SUNRISE, AND WITH LINGERING WET ROADS, SOME
WITH SLUSHY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND MOUNTAIN
PASSES, SLICK ROADS COULD IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE TODAY. A FEW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN VERMONT RIVER
VALLEYS, EVIDENT ON SATELLITE, HOWEVER, ANY FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE CPV
GENERALLY BETWEEN 7-9 AM THIS MORNING WITH BRIEFLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW. A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE, AND WHILE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL, GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, SOME ADDITIONAL IMPACT MAY BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
FOLLOWING THE BOUNDARY, MOISTURE PROFILES DRY OUT QUICKLY WITH SKIES
TRENDING TOWARDS CLEAR BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 40, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING BELOW 40 DUE
TO STRONG CAA WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S AS A RESULT. STRONG
RADIATIVE COOLING IS LIKELY TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FEEL LIKE WINTER
WITH VALUE SIN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. SOME OF THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, AND ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS COULD FALL AS
FAR AS THE LOW TEENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO FOLLOW FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK THIS WEEK WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION,
WHICH MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED. FURTHERMORE, DAYTIME
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30-40%
RANGE WHICH WILL BE HARD FOR SHOWERS TO OVERCOME BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
ONCE THIS BOUNDARY SLIDES EAST, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME
BLOCKED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM DUE TO
CYCLONIC FLOW. MODELS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
GENERAL DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS IN THE POSITION OF THE BLOCKED LOW,
HOWEVER, SHOWER CHANCES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH LATE WEEK. DRIER
CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 50S, THOUGH SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM MAY
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S DUE TO BRISK CYCLONIC FLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLIER SIDE WITH VALUES IN THE 30S, AND PERHAPS
SOME UPPER 20S INTO PARTS OF ESSEX COUNTY, VT DUE TO CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE BLOCKED UPPER LOW (SEASONABLE LOWS ARE IN THE LOW
30S FOR THE NEK).
KEY MESSAGE 3: QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF
CLOUD COVER AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW GYRES OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES BREAKS DOWN
AND THE MARITIME LOW SHIFTS EAST, CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASE
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY GIVEN THE
EVOLVING PATTERN AND MODEL SPREAD. HIGHS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
WILL BE IN THE 50S, REACHING INTO THE 60S ON THE WEEKEND, WITH LOWS
30S RISING INTO THE 40S.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING THROUGH THE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GIVE THE MINIMAL COVERAGE,
HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS AT TERMINALS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, 5 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS OF 18
TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TOWRDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS TRENDING CALM AND/OR TERRAIN INFLUENCED
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BOYD/DANZIG
DISCUSSION...LAHIFF/DANZIG
AVIATION...KREMER
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