301
FXUS61 KBTV 091837
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
237 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 234 PM EDT SATURDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 234 PM EDT SATURDAY...
1. THIS AFTERNOON'S RAIN MOVES OUT THIS EVENING, BUT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
2. BRIEF RIDGING COMBINED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP MONDAY
AND TUESDAY CHILLY BUT MAINLY DRY.
3. GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 234 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VT
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE EASTERN
ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OUR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE SEEN ON UPSTREAM RADARS,
MOVING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS WILL
ARRIVE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BEFORE MIDNIGHT, AND THERE COULD
STILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO.
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD INTO VERMONT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY
FOLLOW SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING A RENEWED CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN VT. MUCH DRIER AIR
FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT, AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY END BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, SO MOTHER'S DAY WON'T BE A COMPLETE
WASHOUT. HOWEVER, EXPECT GOOD MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL DUE TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME
GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL AS WELL, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT
RANGE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20 MPH, THOUGH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL BE IN NORTHERN NY, WHICH WILL ALSO SEE THE HIGHEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DUE TO COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S IN WEST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY,
WHILE 60S WILL BE MUCH MORE COMMON FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, USHERING IN A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS. HOWEVER, AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. MUCH LIKE WHAT WE
SAW ON FRIDAY, THE COLD POOL ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHILE THIS SHOULD
GENERALLY LEAD TO DAYTIME CLOUDS, THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO DEVELOP,
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN NY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY TO
RIDGING BY TUESDAY THOUGH, SO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHILLY, WITH HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL; MOST
SPOTS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL
FEATURE FROSTY CONDITIONS AS LOWS DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. FROST
ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROWING
SEASON FOR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ALL OF VERMONT EXCEPT THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM OFFICIALLY STARTS ON MAY 11.
KEY MESSAGE 3: EARLY WEEK SURFACE RIDGING ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING WILL START THE EXTENDED ON A COOLER NOTE, BEFORE MORE
PERSISTENT RIDGING UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY WARMS THE REGION
TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE EXTENDED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES
FOR FROST ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AIDED BY
540MB THICKNESS LINES WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
IN EASTERN VERMONT. THE CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON FOR EASTERN
VERMONT (OUTSIDE OF THE NEK), BEGINS MONDAY MAY 11TH, SO FROST
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF CLOUD COVER BECOMES CONDUCIVE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
INTO THE MIDDLE AND LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, STRONG RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL TREND OUR FLOW PATTERN TOWARDS
TROUGHINESS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE HUDSON
BAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A LONG WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES WHICH SHOULD HELP DISLODGE THE UPPER LOW, HOWEVER, THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MODELS
ARE NOT HANDLING THE DEEPENING OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WELL, WITH
THE DURATION OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN QUESTION. A BLOCKING HIGH IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DELAY THE PROPAGATION OF A SURFACE
LOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, HOWEVER, MODELS SUCH AS THE EPS KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW STALLS AND
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE
GEFS/GEPS ARE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW ALSO A BIT NORTH
WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE CHANCES OF THE SYSTEM OCCLUDING OVER NEW
ENGLAND. BEHIND THE MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM, RIDGING SHOULD MAKE ITS
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES TO AT OR PERHAPS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH GEFS 925MB TEMPERATURES TO 15C, SUPPORTING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE IF THE MID TO LATE
WEEK SYSTEM BECOMES BLOCKED, TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST DUE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY, NORTHEAST CYCLONIC FLOW
AND CLOUDS FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW, WE CAN HOPE FOR A WARM, AND
DRYING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
BRING CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN TO RUT/MPV WITH LOWERING CEILINGS FOR THE
NEXT 4-5 HOURS, BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF. BREEZY SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR AT BTV/EFK IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
PASSING COASTAL LOW, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW
SOON CEILINGS TREND LOWER, THUS HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST, CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AT MSS/PBG/SLK FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS, WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TOWARDS MVFR BETWEEN 20-22Z AT SLK, AND 00-03Z AT
MSS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MSS BETWEEN
02-04Z, WITH PERHAPS SOME 5SM SHOWERS AND A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER,
BUT THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES MSS, THUS LEADING
TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AND LOWER VSBYS AND JUST A MENTION
HERE IN THE DISCUSSION. THE FRONT WILL BRING JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BY
DAYBREAK, SOME REINVIGORATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF BTV/MPV/EFK THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT
BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. PATCHY FROST.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY: MVFR. CHANCE SHRA.
MARINE
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON. THEY WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, THEN
PICK BACK UP OVERNIGHT. WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HASTINGS
DISCUSSION...DANZIG/HASTINGS
AVIATION...DANZIG
MARINE...
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