217
FXUS61 KBTV 270515
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
115 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...
1. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY.
2. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WITH FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
3. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA THIS EVENING BRINGING SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN ACCOMPANYING LOW LEVEL JET TO 40 TO 50
KNOTS IS LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 25 TO
35 MPH. THE JET WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN, DRIVEN BY INCREASING DRY AIR
EVIDENT ON GOES-19 WATER VAPOR. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE CORE
OF THE JET, AND SUBSEQUENT STRONGER GUSTS, WILL RIDE JUST NORTH
OF THE NORTHERN NEW YORK INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH GUSTS
ACROSS THE US 11 CORRIDOR PEAKING BETWEEN 40 TO 45 MPH,
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN MASSENA AND FORT COVINGTON, NY. SHOULD THE
CORE OF THE JET NUDGE A FEW MILES SOUTH, AN ISOLATED WIND GUST
AROUND 46 MPH (WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW SPATIAL ASPECT OF THESE STRONGER GUSTS,
IN ADDITION TO A SHORT TIME RANGE OF ANY PEAK GUSTS (BETWEEN 6
AND 9 PM) A WIND ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTS WILL DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING BEYOND 9 PM, WITH GUSTS WEAKENING TO AROUND 10 MPH BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH DRY
AIR LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, HOWEVER, A LACK OF TRUE
CONVERGENCE, WEAK FORCING, AND ENTRENCHED DRY AIR WILL CAUSE ANY
SHOWER INITIATION TO STRUGGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S TOMORROW BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH SOME
LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S AS THE FRONT IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE FURTHER SOUTH. SEASONABLY
COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW TO MID 50S
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH FOR THURSDAY WITH
COOLER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AS HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S.
COOLING ALOFT WITH SOME DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING MAY LEAD TO SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS,
THOUGH WITH LOW HUMIDITY NEAR THE SURFACE, SOME SHOWERS
INITIALLY MAY FALL AS VIRGA, WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT SHOWERS LEADING
ONLY TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD COLUMNS SATURATE ENOUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 3: UNSEASONABLY COLD AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW PIVOTING OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND PLENTY
OF SHOWER CHANCES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60, MAKING FOR
A RATHER COLD AND RAW START TO THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES 15
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE END OF MAY. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BECOME MORE SEASONABLE WITH
RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDING EASTWARD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT APPROACHING MONTREAL THIS MORNING, WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE. EXPECT BOUNDARY TO BE ACROSS OUR TAF SITES
BETWEEN 12-16Z THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MULTIPLE
LAYERS OF MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OUR TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. NO FOG OR MIST TONIGHT GIVEN
STRONGER WIND PROFILES AND DRIER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD AN APPROACHING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS ON
LAKE CHAMPLAIN ENHANCING GUSTS AND WAVE CONDITIONS. WINDS ON THE
LAKE WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM THIS EVENING,
PARTICULARLY ON THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE LAKE. WAVES WILL BE 1
TO 2 FT. GUSTS WILL WEAKEN BACK TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANZIG
DISCUSSION...DANZIG/KREMER
AVIATION...TABER
MARINE...DANZIG
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