531
FXUS61 KBTV 272331
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 220 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 220 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. TRENDING SEASONABLY COOL AND SHOWERY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
2. COLD AND WET CONDITIONS WILL BE THE START TO THE WEEKEND.
3. GENERALLY UNSETTLED WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MOST DAYS IN
THE LONG TERM, BUT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 220 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON EVIDENT ON CURRENT SATELLITE
WITH ASSOCIATED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS STREAKS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIMIT ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AND NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, HOWEVER, A LACK OF TRUE CONVERGENCE, WEAK
FORCING, AND ENTRENCHED MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CAUSE ANY SHOWER
INITIATION TO STRUGGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
TOMORROW WITH COOLER AIR REMAINING IN PLACE AS HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 60S. COOLING ALOFT WITH SOME DIURNAL SURFACE HEATING MAY
LEAD TO SOME WEAK INSTABILITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MORE SO THE NORTHERN
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM, WITH ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED UNDER ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS. NORTH WINDS
WILL KEEP THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BECOME BLOCKED ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY WITH LOW 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL
BE OVERHEAD SATURDAY. NOTABLY, THIS CLOSED LOW ORIGINATES WELL
NORTH OF THE HUDSON BAY WITH TEMPERATURES RESEMBLING THAT OF
EARLY TO MID SPRING OR MID TO LATE FALL, RATHER THAN THE END OF
MAY/EARLY JUNE. 850MB AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 10TH
PERCENTILE WITH NEAR FREEZING AND 6C TEMPERATURES,
RESPECTIVELY. HIGHS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL AS A RESULT, WITH VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S, AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS DUE TO
WATER TEMPERATURES HELPING TO MODERATE AIR TEMPERATURES.
THESE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWER AND RAIN ACTIVITY LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO PASS OVER THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION FOCUSED OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN VERMONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY TO HALF AN INCH TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM ARE POSSIBLE. LESSER AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH UP TO TENTH OR TWO OF
RAIN, CLOSER TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN. THE
GFS DENOTES THE 540 THICKNESS LINE WILL BE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS
WHICH IS UNCOMMON, BUT NOT UNHEARD OF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS
A RESULT, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO AROUND 4000FT AGL, THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR A DUSTING OF WET SNOW ATOP THE SUMMITS OF THE
HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS
TO BE RAW WITH THE COOLING TEMPERATURES, RAIN, AND SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS. BEYOND SATURDAY MORNING,
SHOWER ACTIVITY COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH
SOME ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE CONNECTICUT
RIVER WITH CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LOOKING INTO THE LONGER TERM, OUR WEATHER
PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
DOMINATE...KEPT IN PLACE BY A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS. AS IS TYPICAL IN THESE SETUPS, THE LONGER TERM
EVOLUTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK...AND THE TIMING OF THE EVENTUAL
PATTERN SHIFT OUT OF THE BLOCK...IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT THIS FAR OUT. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY INCREASING MODEL
SPREAD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US AMONGST ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. WHAT
IS MORE CERTAIN HOWEVER, WILL BE THAT GENERAL TROUGHINESS WILL
DOMINATE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO FINISH OUT THE
WEEKEND, BUT A WARMING TREND WILL BRING TEMPS TO NEAR NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE
NORTH UNDER 10 KTS, BUT SOME GUSTS OCCASIONALLY. CLOUD COVER
WILL INCREASE AND BASES GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z, HAVE A PROB30 GROUP
FOR EFK FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS, EVEN WITHIN ANY SHOWERS THAT MAY PASS
THROUGH. CEILINGS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER TOWARD HIGH MVFR LEVELS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z, THEN LIFT BACK UP TO VFR BY 18Z. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO UNDER 6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. LIKELY RA, CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE RA,
CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANZIG
DISCUSSION...DANZIG/DUELL
AVIATION...NEILES
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