152
FXUS61 KBTV 281050
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
650 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 249 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 249 AM EDT THURSDAY...
1. TRENDING SHOWERY AND COOLER HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
2. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
WITH A SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 249 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. ITS
PASSAGE WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DUE TO THE FORCING AND
INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE COLD AIR ALOFT. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW SUMMIT LEVELS, THOUGH ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE CURRENT LOWEST SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECASTED TO DROP
TO AROUND 3,500 FEET, THOUGH QUESTIONS REMAIN IF THERE WILL BE
CONSISTENT PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME. VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
THERE ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY THOUGH. THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE CORE OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. A GEFS/CMC/EPS ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SATURDAY MORNING. THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGE IS 0
CELSIUS AT 850 MB AND 3 CELSIUS AT 925 MB. SATURDAY MORNING WILL
LIKELY BE SHOWERY AND COOL, THOUGH THOUGH IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
THAT IT WILL TREND A BIT WARMER WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE
FROM WPC, WHICH SUPPORTS UNSETTLED WX AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU
TUES OF NEXT WEEK. MID/UPPER LVL TROF PREVAILS ACRS THE NE CONUS
WITH POTENT S/W ENERGY IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO IMPACT
OUR CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS IS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF ANOTHER 700-500MB CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY. AS COOL POOL ALOFT MOVES DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AND SOME WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING DEVELOPS,
SFC TO 700MB LAPSE RATES INCREASE >8.0 C/KG, WHILE WEAK SLIVER OF
CAPE DEVELOPS. THIS INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A FEW LOW TOP/SHALLOW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON MONDAY AFTN. A FEW
STRONGER CORES MAYBE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL GIVEN LOW
FREEZING LEVELS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRECIP PER LATEST WPC
FORECAST WL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AT 45 TO 60% ACRS OUR CWA.
ADDITIONAL LOBES OF MID LVL MOISTURE AND WEAK EMBEDDED S/W ENERGY IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR CWA ON TUES WITH THE
THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS. EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR SLOWLY DEVELOPS AS
MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS
EASTWARD. THE EXACT TIMING OF DEPARTING DEEP MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND
BUILDING RIDGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN LATEST
GUIDANCE. WPC SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS FOR
WEDS/THURS WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY THURS.
TEMPS WL HOLD MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MONDAY/TUES WITH
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS, WHILE LOWS HOLD IN THE MID
40S TO MID/UPPER 50S MOST NIGHTS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS NORTHERN NY
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS, EXCEPT LOCALIZED MVFR AT EFK AND IFR
AT RUT. CONDITIONS AT RUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR SHORTLY. MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH
INTERVALS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE AT RUT/EFK/SLK AND MPV THIS
MORNING. HAVE UTILIZED TEMPO GROUP TO COVER POTENTIAL MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH PROB30 TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS. WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15Z-21Z. SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 22Z WITH
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS VFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA,
SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...TABER/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...TABER
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