068
FXUS61 KBTV 290518
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
118 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 117 PM EDT THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 117 PM EDT THURSDAY...
1. SHOWERY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
2. OMEGA BLOCK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND PERIOD OF SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 117 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES AND PROMOTING DAILY
SHOWER POTENTIAL AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. THE
STRONGEST FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES, COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES, AND SOME BREEZES. WITH THE COLD POOL
FAVORED TO MOVE DIRECTLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT,
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS PROBABLE AT PEAK LEVELS OF THE ADIRONDACKS
AND POSSIBLY THE GREENS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT TO
NEGLIGIBLE GIVEN RECENT WARMER CONDITIONS AND LIKELY RAPID
MELTING OF SNOW AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE OF THE RIDGES. STILL
UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
ADIRONDACKS, AND COULD CATCH MORE CASUAL HIKERS OFF GUARD. IF
YOU HAVE HIKING PLANS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, EXPECT TO NEED SOME
COLD WEATHER GEAR. PERIODIC BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WHERE FLOW TENDS TO
BE MORE CHANNELED; GUSTS 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
LAKE CHAMPLAIN AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES
BRINGING A RESURGENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL HELP REINFORCE THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW ANCHORING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE OMEGA BLOCK ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE
INCREASED FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SLOW THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCK WHICH IS QUITE TYPICAL IN
LONG-DURATION BLOCKING PATTERNS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE BLOCKING
PATTERN WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW
PUSHING TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
SHIFTING EASTWARD. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD WHICH WILL ADVECT IN MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES (CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS) BUT WON'T BE TO THE SAME
EXTREME SEEN FURTHER WEST.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GOES-19 IR SATELLITE SHOWS MULTIPLE CLOUD
LAYERS MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OUR TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THESE CLOUDS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD PREVENT FOG/MIST OR LOW CLOUDS FROM
DEVELOPING AT ANY TAF SITES THRU 12Z. AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND
LIFT ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON, AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH AN
EMBEDDED RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL INCREASE AFTER 18Z FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A SURFACE BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING, CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY INTERVALS
OF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD 06Z SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH LOCALIZED
HIGHER GUSTS, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. LOCALIZED MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BOYD
DISCUSSION...CLAY/BOYD
AVIATION...TABER
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