300
FXUS61 KBTV 301140
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 241 AM EDT SATURDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 241 AM EDT SATURDAY...
1. TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND AND SOME FLAKES IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
2. PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
3. MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 241 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: ROUND ONE OF THE SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE REACHED THE 0.75 -1.5 RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF VERMONT, AND THE 0.1-0.3 RANGE IN NORTHERN NEW YORK WITH A
SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN THEM IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. LOCALIZED
TOTALS UP TO 1.75 INCHES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM. OVERALL, RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH
EXPECTED. THE NOTABLE FEATURE WITH THIS ONE IS THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THIS HAS CAUSED FREEZING LEVELS TO DROP BELOW SUMMIT LEVELS.
BASED ON OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND RADAR CORRELATION COEFFICIENT,
SNOW LEVELS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 2,500 AND 3,500 FEET. ABOVE THAT
LEVEL, 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. IN THAT RANGE, A SLUSHY COATING IS
LIKELY. LOWER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT FARTHER EAST, AND A
FEW FLAKES COULD DROP DOWN TO 2,000-2500 FEET ACROSS EASTERN
VERMONT, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THAT LOW. A FEW
FLAKES WILL MIX IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM,
AND COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SOUTH THROUGH GROTON
AND INTO ORANGE COUNTY. THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT EARLY THIS
MORNING AND SOME CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR BY AFTERNOON, SO TODAY SHOULD
OVERALL BE A DECENT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THE SECOND
ROUND OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES SUNDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH THE DYNAMICS WILL BE WEAKER WITH THIS ONE.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO BE WARMER, SO SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY ABOVE SUMMIT LEVELS, THOUGH A FEW FLAKES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT AT THE SUMMITS OF THE HIGH PEAKS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM, BUT AT MOST A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT AND
DAYTIME CLOUDS FOR PART OF THE DAY TODAY SHOULD LIMIT DIURNAL
HEATING A BIT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS THE DAY GOES ON,
THOUGH, AND BY SUNSET THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN BY SUNSET, AND WHILE SOME LIGHT WINDS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT IN EXPOSED AREAS, THE
PROTECTED HOLLOWS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DECOUPLING. THESE FACTORS
WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INFILTRATE THE REGION AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON, BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY
AND THE CLOUDS COULD BE TOO THIN TO HAVE MUCH OF AN EFFECT ON THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES IN THE 30-38 DEGREE RANGE
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHILE TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 35-40 ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM. DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, NO FROST HEADLINES
WERE ISSUED, BUT A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE ADIRONDACKS
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A NARROW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
WILL BE OUR CONTROLLING WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY PERIOD. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAYTIME CONDITIONS. WITH MODERATING
850MB TEMPERATURES, EXPECTING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE FROM
THE LOW-MID 70S ON WEDNESDAY, TO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN MODEST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE 50S. CONSENSUS OF 00Z CANADIAN/ECMWF/GFS AND
ASSOCIATED MODEL ENSEMBLES IS FOR A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO SOMETIME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, JUNE
6TH. SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING WHEN IT EVENTUALLY ARRIVES,
BUT TIMING VARIES ACROSS THE 00Z NWP SUITE. CURRENTLY FORECASTING 40-
50% POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
PERIOD, WITH TIMING REPRESENTING THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. IF
DEEP- LAYER RIDGE AXIS HOLDS, THERE'S A REASONABLE CHANCE THAT
FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS WOULD BE DELAYED INTO THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
MIGRATING SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL SEE RAIN ENDING
AT MPV, SLK, AND RUT BY 14Z, WITH MVFR CEILINGS IMPROVING BACK
TO VFR AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS A BAND OF LLWS WHICH
WILL IMPACT KMPV AND KRUT THROUGH 13Z BEFORE EXITING TO OUR
SOUTH. MODERATELY STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL HELP BRING CLEARING
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS LOW DEPARTS. N-NE WINDS WILL
REMAIN MODERATELY STRONG AND GUSTY THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,
LOCALLY 20G30KT AT BTV/MSS/PBG DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING TOWARD SUNSET. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG 06-12Z SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MARINE
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THEY HAVE
SHIFTED TOWARDS NORTHWESTERLY, AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THEY BECOME
NORTHERLY. BY SUNRISE, SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 20-25
KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. WINDS STAY ELEVATED THIS
MORNING BUT THEY SHOULD DROP QUICKLY HEADING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 KT BY EVENING. WAVES
OF 1-2 FEET WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 2-4 FEET, ESPECIALLY WHEN
MORE SUSTAINED FLOW IS ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS
DROP BELOW 1 FOOT BY EVENING.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...NWS BTV
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