340
FXUS61 KBTV 311107
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
707 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 704 AM EDT SUNDAY...
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES RISE THIS
MORNING, NO ADDITIONAL FROST FORMATION IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 250 AM EDT SUNDAY...
1. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE
TRENDING DRIER.
2. PATCHY FROST IS FORMING AND IS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.
3. WARMER AND DRIER PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE PASSES DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TODAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL HELP CREATE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY, SO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE. WITH THE
CONVECTION AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS, PEA-SIZED HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM
ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER THAN WITH THE PREVIOUS EVENT, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS ONLY
UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO BE
WARMER, SO SNOW LEVELS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ABOVE SUMMIT LEVELS, THOUGH
A FEW FLAKES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT THE SUMMITS OF THE
HIGH PEAKS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY. AFTER THAT,
A DRY STRETCH AND A WARMING TREND BEGIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN EXCELLENT FOR
THE TIME OF THE YEAR SO FAR TONIGHT, THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO STREAM DOWN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE 30S IN MOST PLACES, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OBSERVED SO FAR HAVE
BEEN FROM THE ADIRONDACKS, NORTHEAST KINGDOM, AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VERMONT WHERE VALUES BETWEEN 31 AND 36 DEGREES HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING IN THE COLDER AREAS. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A COUPLE
MORE DEGREES, BUT THEY ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING THEIR DEW POINTS, THE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN, AND SUNRISE IS NOT TOO FAR OFF. OVERALL,
PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND ANY OF THE COLDER
HOLLOWS OF THE GREEN MOUNTAIN SPINE AND POINTS EAST. THERE IS AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING
UP AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
THIS ONE. DESPITE THAT, PATCHY FROST WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE
COLDEST HOLLOWS, MOSTLY IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM.
KEY MESSAGE 3: AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL REMAIN PRETTY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES JUST A
FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY WITH BOTH A SURFACE FRONT AND SOME DECENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THIS FAR OUT, THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THINGS TO SHIFT A BIT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...CONDITIONS ARE VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS AT OR
ABOVE 15000 FT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
BEYOND 13-15Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NUMEROUS
IN COVERAGE FROM ABOUT 17Z-02Z MONDAY. A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, AND SOME AREAS OF LOWER VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION, BUT
BROADLY THINKING -SHRA IS APPROPRIATE FOR NOW. CEILINGS WILL
FALL TOWARDS 2500-5000 FT AGL, AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. MAY HAVE SOME LINGERING LOWER CEILINGS AROUND TOWARDS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...MYSKOWSKI/NEILES
DISCUSSION...NEILES/MYSKOWSKI
AVIATION...NEILES
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