697
FXUS61 KBTV 071846
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
246 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED AND TEMPS HAVE DECREASED ON
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...
1. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
2. WARM AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: FCST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS TIMING OF CLEARING AND
POTENTIAL FOR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. GOES-19 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
POCKET OF MID LVL MOISTURE EXITING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT, WHILE DEEP
SUBSIDENCE IS QUICKLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR CWA AND DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES TOWARD
THE SFC, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIALLY BL WINDS ARE IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE
WITH SOME SOUNDING DATA SHOWING 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE 500 FT TO 1000
FT AGL, WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, 1025MB HIGH
PRES BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER SLK BY 12Z AND FEEL BL SHOULD DECOUPLE
ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SHALLOW DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY BASED ON WINDS, RECENT RAINFALL, AND CROSS OVER
TEMPS BEING REACHED WL BE ACRS NORTHERN NY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT, INCLUDING THE NEK AND PARTS OF THE CT RIVER
VALLEY. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM MID/UPPER 30S SLK TO NEAR 50F CPV.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
WITH SFC HIGH PRES SLOWLY SLIDING OFF THE EAST COAST. THESE TWO DAYS
WL FEATURE CLASSIC NORTH COUNTRY SUMMER-TIME CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
TEMPS MID 70S TO MID 80S. GIVEN DEEP DRY LAYER IN PLACE, EXPECT A
LARGE SWING BETWEEN COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS AND MILD DAYTIME HIGHS
ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES. NEAR CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUES, BUT WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND TRRN
DRIVEN.
FOR WEDS...LATEST FCST SHOWS MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AS
S/W ENERGY IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACRS OUR CWA. THIS
ENERGY COMBINED WITH A WARM FRNT LIFTING FROM SW TO NE ACRS OUR CWA,
WL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE MID/UPPER LVL PATTERN
BECOMES RATHER MESSY ON WEDS AFTN WITH LINGERING S/W ENERGY ACRS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING TROF. THIS SYNOPTIC
SCALE SCENARIO, COMBINED WITH PW VALUES CLIMBING BTWN 1.25 AND 1.50"
COULD SUPPORT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY
VALUES. HOWEVER, WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP, TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80F MOST OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IF WARM FRNT BECOMES DRAPED
ACRS OUR NORTHERN CWA. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THE FCST, BUT DID
TREND A LITTLE WETTER AND COOLER FOR WEDS, GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN
OUR DATA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A MESSY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO USHER IN WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND LOWER
90S, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S MAKING IT FEEL QUITE MUGGY. WITH SUCH
A HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION, THERE LOOK TO BE DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW YORK WHERE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE STILL REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PATTERN EVOLUTION WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGING THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR LINGERING AT KSLK AND KEFK THIS
AFTERNOON. AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION, CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS, WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOWARDS 21Z OR SO.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FOG WILL BE IN THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY, IMPACTING KMSS. FOG DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT OTHER
TERMINALS, SUCH AS KSLK AND KEFK, BUT THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH THE BEST WINDOW FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
NEAR SUNRISE. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE. HEADING INTO THE EVENING, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA,
CHANCE TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT
CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT
CHANCE SHRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY MVFR, WITH LOCAL VFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED INTO THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. GIVEN THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF REACHING ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA WILL BE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LAKE THRU SUNSET THIS
EVENING. WAVES GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER SEAS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...TABER
DISCUSSION...TABER/KREMER
AVIATION...KREMER
MARINE...TABER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page