637
FXUS61 KBTV 240724
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
324 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 242 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 242 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. DRY TODAY FOLLOWED BY CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
2. WHILE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 242 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION, AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING, BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING STORMS TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE AT THIS
TIME, BUT WILL MONITOR FOR THIS POSITION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK WARM BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY HOT FOR THE FINAL DAYS OF JUNE. CONSENSUS HAS
GROWN THAT SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY PROVIDING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SUNNY SKIES AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES SOAR A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THE
75TH PERCENTILE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR BTV IS UP TO 90
DEGREES, A DEGREE HIGHER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MEANWHILE TUESDAY IS
A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN (SOME GUIDANCE IS COOLER BUT MOSTLY A BIT
WARMER). THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT MAY LEAD
TO A HOTTER DAY THAN MONDAY REGARDLESS. HAVE NOTED STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF IS MOSTLY A BIT COOLER THAN THE GFS AT
THIS POINT THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME; IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS IS A
MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCE FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, BUT CLEARLY FOR
HEAT INDICES THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE IMPORTANT. THE
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO LOOK TIED TO THE POSITION OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUR WEST, WITH MOST GEFS MEMBERS SHOWING A
STRONGER RIDGE WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION AND/OR
UPSTREAM THAN THE ENS MEMBERS, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
THE LATEST MODEL BLEND PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
ROUGHLY THE SAME EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY (GENERALLY
PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR 20%). ODDS ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER IN NORTHERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY THAN ON THE FOLLOWING
DAYS, POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARMTH AND
ASSOCIATION CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BUILDING EASTWARD. BROADLY
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MUCH GREATER INSTABILITY FAVORED ON TUESDAY (MEAN SBCAPE IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE FOR MOST OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH WITH LARGE
SPREAD) COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
ESPECIALLY DEW POINTS TICK UP.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK ADVECTION OF DRIER AND
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR MITIGATES POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING. CURRENT TEMPERATURE - DEWPOINT SPREADS OF ABOUT
10 DEGREES AT MPV ARE INDICATIVE OF THE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH
MODEST NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE DECK. AND WHILE SLK HAS HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, SHARPLY DECREASING HUMIDITY ABOVE THE GROUND
SUGGESTS FOG IS UNLIKELY AS WELL HERE.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MIXING WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY UNIFORM GUSTY WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT AREA TERMINALS BY 15Z,
GENERALLY DIMINISHING NEAR OR SOON AFTER SUNSET. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER COULD AFFECT THE EFK TERMINAL PRIMARILY FROM 18Z TO 00Z
WITH LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. DEFINITE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. LIKELY SHRA, CHANCE
TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SUNDAY: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/NEILES
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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