179
FXUS61 KBTV 251150
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
750 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 239 AM EDT THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 239 AM EDT THURSDAY...
1. SHOWERS RETURN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
2. WHILE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SIGNIFICANT HEAT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.
ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 239 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: AFTER A FEW MOSTLY DRY DAYS SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING INTO OUR REGION LATER TODAY IN NORTHERN NEW YORK, AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING
WILL TRACK EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR FORECAST AREA. A WEAK WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY BRINING FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS.
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD CAUSE STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH RAIN
HEAVY AT TIMES. AS THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END,
SHOULD END WITH A FEW AREAS OF WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION. THEN
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH LOW PASSING JUST TO
OUR NORTH. DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE AROUND 500- 1000 J
OF CAPE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KT, SO A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, INCREASING DRY AIR ALOFT AND
RELATIVELY WEAK SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS WILL HELP MINIMIZE THE THREAT.
ADEQUATE STORM MOVEMENT AND THE BREAK BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT
AND THE CONVECTION WILL MINIMIZE THE FLOOD THREAT. SPC HAS
PLACED MOST OF OUR REGION UNDER GENERAL THUNDER THREAT, WITH
MARGINAL OVER SOUTHEASTERN VERMONT. WPC HAS ALSO PUT MOST OF VT
WITHIN AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MARGINAL RISK SINCE OUR AREA HAS
BEEN PRETTY WET RECENTLY. RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND JUST A TENTH OF AN INCH IN PARTS OF THE
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY, UP TO AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN WHERE THE MOST
PERSISTENT RAIN FALLS AND IN ANY AREAS THAT HAVE CONVECTION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE TYPES OF RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 24 HOURS
ARE UNLIKELY TO CAUSE MANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES AT ABOUT 15 TO 16 DEGREES C. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR THE 80TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE AND SUGGESTIVE OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHEN SKIES ARE
MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT. THEN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE
FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED BY POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ON BOTH DAYS, THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE AND YET
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH GUIDANCE THAT TRENDS TEMPERATURES LESS
HOT. BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN, IT IS UNSURPRISING FORECAST
HIGHS CONTINUE TO BE HOTTER THAN ON MONDAY, BUT AGAIN IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THESE HIGHS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN EARLY IN THE
WEEK. OVERALL, THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT HEAT REMAINS LOW COMPARED
TO AREAS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER
PATTERN.
THE LATEST MODEL BLEND PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
SLIGHTLY TRENDED DOWNWARD ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS MORE PROMISING FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
GENERALLY DUE TO GREATER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, IT HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD. BETTER PROBABILITIES OF
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ARE ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN NEW YORK. NOTE THIS IS STILL A WEEK OUT AND THE
PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY LOW (12 HOUR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONLY
AS HIGH AS 28% WITHIN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY). THAT SAID, IT
APPEARS SURFACE WINDS FINALLY WILL TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND ALLOW TRANSPORT OF TRULY HUMID AIR (DEW POINTS POSSIBLY INTO
THE 70S) REACHING OUR REGION THAT WILL HAVE BEEN BUILDING UNDER
A HEAT DOME SITTING TO OUR WEST. THIS SCENARIO WHERE AT LEAST
MODEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COINCIDES WITH POTENTIALLY HIGH
AMOUNTS (>2000 J/KG SBCAPE) OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z, THEN CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE BRINGING AT LEAST TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS TO SELECT
TERMINALS. PROB30S WERE UTILIZED IN THE 20-24Z PERIOD BASED ON
THE RELATIVELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL SITES, PERHAPS MISSING MSS TO
THE EAST.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE PREVALENCE OF ANY
IFR CONDITIONS AS CLOUD BASES EVEN WITHIN RAINFALL LOOK
PRIMARILY IN THE MVFR RANGE, AND ONLY THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS WILL
LOWER VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM. SOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
SUGGESTS MPV WILL MORE LIKELY SEE LOWER CEILINGS AFTER RAIN ENDS
TOWARDS 09-10Z.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY LIGHT
SOUTH OR WEST WINDS. CONCURRENT WITH THE AREA OF RAIN LATE IN
THE PERIOD WILL AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT, BUT THESE
LOOK TOO LIGHT TO PRODUCE LLWS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHRA,
SCATTERED TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL IFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...NEILES
DISCUSSION...KUTIKOFF/NEILES
AVIATION...KUTIKOFF
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