208
FXUS61 KBTV 151131
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
731 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 514 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS ENDED. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
LINGER EARLY. SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED TO PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND VERMONT WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.
KEY MESSAGES
AS OF 150 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
1. STORMS MOVING AWAY TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER.
2. SMOKY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL A REINFORCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS RAIN AND PUSHES IT SOUTH.
3. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 514 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1: STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED THE
REGION. WE CONCLUDE A NIGHT THAT FEATURED A DANGEROUS STORM IN
ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY THAT DROPPED BASEBALL-SIZED HAIL AND A FEW
STORMS THAT MANAGED TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE WITHIN BOWING
SEGMENTS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VERMONT. THINGS ARE
QUIETER NOW, ESPECIALLY ON ACCOUNT OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF
LIGHTNING ON DISPLAY WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE LINGERING AS THEY APPROACH THE ADIRONDACKS WITH A
FEW SPOTS IN EASTERN VERMONT WITHOUT LIGHTNING. AS ALWAYS, WE
APPRECIATE REPORTS, AS THEY HELP US GET A SCOPE ON THE IMPACTS
OF THE EVENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, SPREADING ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO THURSDAY. POOR AIR QUALITY WILL BE POSSIBLE,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR THE MOST
PART. WITH DIURNAL HEATING, SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING SOUTH, BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE NEARLY AS
MUCH INSTABILITY AS THIS EVENING'S ACTIVITY. COOLER CONDITIONS ENSUE.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AS
TWO SURFACE LOW PRESSURES, ONE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND ONE ALONG THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST, WILL INTERACT WHILE TRACKING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FAIRLY ALIGNED IN THIS
IDEA AT THE MOMENT, PROVIDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
PROBABILITY OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITHIN 24 HOURS FROM THIS SYSTEM
IS AROUND 5-20%. MORE LIKELY 24 HOUR AMOUNTS WILL FALL SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 0.33 AND 0.66 INCHES. DEPENDING ON THE STORM TRACK AND
TIMING OF ANY ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGES, THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WATCHED, BUT THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
LOWER SIDE DUE TO A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
60S. NEXT WEEK SHOULD START BRIEFLY DRY ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S, THEN ANOTHER TROUGH AND
NORTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SWING THROUGH TO INCREASE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRAVELING NEAR KRUT,
BUT OTHERWISE, DRYING IS EXPECTING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE UP TO 8 TO 13 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 19 TO 23 KNOTS
FROM 14Z-23Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTERWARDS.
SMOKY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY ALOFT TODAY. AFTER ABOUT
21Z, SMOKE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA. FOR
NOW, HELD OFF ADDING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND WILL MONITOR
UPSTREAM OBS. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ALOFT AFTER 00Z, AND THIS
SHOULD PREVENT FOG, BUT WITH THE ADDITION OF SMOKE, IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT COULD STILL ALLOW FOR MORE FOG FORMATION.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
SATURDAY: VFR. CHANCE SHRA, CHANCE TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY IFR, WITH AREAS MVFR POSSIBLE. CHANCE
SHRA, SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH AREAS IFR POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...HAYNES
DISCUSSION...MYSKOWSKI/HAYNES
AVIATION...HAYNES/MYSKOWSKI
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